A fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran, the United States, and Israel, announced by President Trump on April 7 and mediated by Pakistan, remains in effect until around April 22 amid stalled diplomatic efforts. A Pakistani delegation met Iranian officials in Tehran on April 16 seeking progress on US-Iran talks, but prior face-to-face negotiations ended without agreement, with deep divisions over terms like Strait of Hormuz access and Israeli strikes in Lebanon persisting. US military reinforcements, including troops and warships, continue arriving, while Israel prepares potential wide-scale operations targeting Iranian energy and IRGC infrastructure if talks collapse. No major military actions have resumed since early April, but Hormuz shipping disruptions and proxy escalations signal high risks of renewed airstrikes or retaliation post-ceasefire.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El conflicto Irán x Israel/Estados Unidos termina con...?
¿El conflicto Irán x Israel/Estados Unidos termina con...?
$42,143,754 Vol.
30 jun 2026
7 de abril
87%
15 de abril
87%
30 de abril
89%
15 de mayo
92%
30 de junio
96%
31 de diciembre
98%
$42,143,754 Vol.
7 de abril
$15,199,811 Vol.
87%
15 de abril
$8,979,142 Vol.
87%
30 de abril
$3,836,454 Vol.
89%
15 de mayo
$3,410,666 Vol.
92%
30 de junio
$2,835,633 Vol.
96%
31 de diciembre
$2,720,340 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran, the United States, and Israel, announced by President Trump on April 7 and mediated by Pakistan, remains in effect until around April 22 amid stalled diplomatic efforts. A Pakistani delegation met Iranian officials in Tehran on April 16 seeking progress on US-Iran talks, but prior face-to-face negotiations ended without agreement, with deep divisions over terms like Strait of Hormuz access and Israeli strikes in Lebanon persisting. US military reinforcements, including troops and warships, continue arriving, while Israel prepares potential wide-scale operations targeting Iranian energy and IRGC infrastructure if talks collapse. No major military actions have resumed since early April, but Hormuz shipping disruptions and proxy escalations signal high risks of renewed airstrikes or retaliation post-ceasefire.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Mercado abierto: Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volumen
$42,143,754Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran, the United States, and Israel, announced by President Trump on April 7 and mediated by Pakistan, remains in effect until around April 22 amid stalled diplomatic efforts. A Pakistani delegation met Iranian officials in Tehran on April 16 seeking progress on US-Iran talks, but prior face-to-face negotiations ended without agreement, with deep divisions over terms like Strait of Hormuz access and Israeli strikes in Lebanon persisting. US military reinforcements, including troops and warships, continue arriving, while Israel prepares potential wide-scale operations targeting Iranian energy and IRGC infrastructure if talks collapse. No major military actions have resumed since early April, but Hormuz shipping disruptions and proxy escalations signal high risks of renewed airstrikes or retaliation post-ceasefire.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volumen
$42,143,754Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran, the United States, and Israel, announced by President Trump on April 7 and mediated by Pakistan, remains in effect until around April 22 amid stalled diplomatic efforts. A Pakistani delegation met Iranian officials in Tehran on April 16 seeking progress on US-Iran talks, but prior face-to-face negotiations ended without agreement, with deep divisions over terms like Strait of Hormuz access and Israeli strikes in Lebanon persisting. US military reinforcements, including troops and warships, continue arriving, while Israel prepares potential wide-scale operations targeting Iranian energy and IRGC infrastructure if talks collapse. No major military actions have resumed since early April, but Hormuz shipping disruptions and proxy escalations signal high risks of renewed airstrikes or retaliation post-ceasefire.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes