Latest ensemble forecasts from global models show Istanbul's minimum temperature on August 23 likely falling between 17–21 °C, keeping trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered around the 16 °C-or-below and 20 °C outcomes. Persistent high pressure and light northerly flow are limiting nocturnal cooling while the urban heat island and Bosphorus marine layer add local variability of 1–3 °C. Historical August minima average near 19 °C, so current guidance sits close to climatology yet carries typical 48-hour forecast uncertainty of ±2 °C. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS, plus Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance issued in the next 24 hours, will refine the exact threshold and likely shift positioning ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más baja en Estambul el 23 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más baja en Estambul el 23 de agosto?
16°C or below 92%
17°C 89%
18°C 89%
25°C 87%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
16°C or below
92%
17°C
89%
18°C
89%
19°C
27%
20°C
46%
21°C
27%
22°C
27%
23°C
27%
24°C
45%
25°C
87%
26°C or higher
51%
16°C or below 92%
17°C 89%
18°C 89%
25°C 87%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
16°C or below
$5 Vol.
92%
17°C
$5 Vol.
89%
18°C
$5 Vol.
89%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
46%
21°C
$0 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$15 Vol.
45%
25°C
$5 Vol.
87%
26°C or higher
$5 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global models show Istanbul's minimum temperature on August 23 likely falling between 17–21 °C, keeping trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered around the 16 °C-or-below and 20 °C outcomes. Persistent high pressure and light northerly flow are limiting nocturnal cooling while the urban heat island and Bosphorus marine layer add local variability of 1–3 °C. Historical August minima average near 19 °C, so current guidance sits close to climatology yet carries typical 48-hour forecast uncertainty of ±2 °C. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS, plus Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance issued in the next 24 hours, will refine the exact threshold and likely shift positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volumen
$40Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global models show Istanbul's minimum temperature on August 23 likely falling between 17–21 °C, keeping trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered around the 16 °C-or-below and 20 °C outcomes. Persistent high pressure and light northerly flow are limiting nocturnal cooling while the urban heat island and Bosphorus marine layer add local variability of 1–3 °C. Historical August minima average near 19 °C, so current guidance sits close to climatology yet carries typical 48-hour forecast uncertainty of ±2 °C. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS, plus Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance issued in the next 24 hours, will refine the exact threshold and likely shift positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$40Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from global models show Istanbul's minimum temperature on August 23 likely falling between 17–21 °C, keeping trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered around the 16 °C-or-below and 20 °C outcomes. Persistent high pressure and light northerly flow are limiting nocturnal cooling while the urban heat island and Bosphorus marine layer add local variability of 1–3 °C. Historical August minima average near 19 °C, so current guidance sits close to climatology yet carries typical 48-hour forecast uncertainty of ±2 °C. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS, plus Turkish State Meteorological Service guidance issued in the next 24 hours, will refine the exact threshold and likely shift positioning ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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