Recent meteorological observations and numerical weather prediction models from agencies such as the Met Office and ECMWF indicate stable high-pressure conditions over northern Italy, supporting clear skies and light easterly winds that favor moderate overnight radiative cooling in Milan. Hourly forecasts and ensemble runs converge on a minimum temperature near 17–18°C during the pre-dawn hours, consistent with September climatology for the Po Valley and current surface observations showing dew points around 16–17°C. This strong model consensus underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability for 17°C. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted increase in low-level moisture or a shift to stronger winds that reduce cooling efficiency, though no such signals appear in the latest model guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Milán el 12 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Milán el 12 de septiembre?
17°C 97%
14°C 95%
15°C 95%
16°C 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 sep 2026
12°C o menos
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
95%
15°C
95%
16°C
19%
17°C
97%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C o más
<1%
17°C 97%
14°C 95%
15°C 95%
16°C 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 sep 2026
12°C o menos
$58 Vol.
1%
13°C
$15 Vol.
1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
95%
15°C
$0 Vol.
95%
16°C
$32 Vol.
19%
17°C
$26 Vol.
97%
18°C
$635 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
22°C o más
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological observations and numerical weather prediction models from agencies such as the Met Office and ECMWF indicate stable high-pressure conditions over northern Italy, supporting clear skies and light easterly winds that favor moderate overnight radiative cooling in Milan. Hourly forecasts and ensemble runs converge on a minimum temperature near 17–18°C during the pre-dawn hours, consistent with September climatology for the Po Valley and current surface observations showing dew points around 16–17°C. This strong model consensus underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability for 17°C. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted increase in low-level moisture or a shift to stronger winds that reduce cooling efficiency, though no such signals appear in the latest model guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$820Fecha de finalización
12 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological observations and numerical weather prediction models from agencies such as the Met Office and ECMWF indicate stable high-pressure conditions over northern Italy, supporting clear skies and light easterly winds that favor moderate overnight radiative cooling in Milan. Hourly forecasts and ensemble runs converge on a minimum temperature near 17–18°C during the pre-dawn hours, consistent with September climatology for the Po Valley and current surface observations showing dew points around 16–17°C. This strong model consensus underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability for 17°C. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted increase in low-level moisture or a shift to stronger winds that reduce cooling efficiency, though no such signals appear in the latest model guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$820Fecha de finalización
12 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological observations and numerical weather prediction models from agencies such as the Met Office and ECMWF indicate stable high-pressure conditions over northern Italy, supporting clear skies and light easterly winds that favor moderate overnight radiative cooling in Milan. Hourly forecasts and ensemble runs converge on a minimum temperature near 17–18°C during the pre-dawn hours, consistent with September climatology for the Po Valley and current surface observations showing dew points around 16–17°C. This strong model consensus underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability for 17°C. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted increase in low-level moisture or a shift to stronger winds that reduce cooling efficiency, though no such signals appear in the latest model guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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