**Clear, stable high-pressure conditions over central Spain are positioning Madrid for a maximum temperature near 34°C on September 14, driving the 53% market-implied probability for that exact outcome.** Official forecasts from multiple models show sunny skies, light southerly winds, and afternoon highs of 33–34°C (roughly 91–93°F), consistent with the historical average high of 26.8°C but elevated by persistent anticyclonic weather. This places 34°C and 35°C (26.5%) as the clear frontrunners, with 33°C (18.5%) as the main alternative if models trend slightly cooler. The all-time September 14 record of 34.4°C adds context for the narrow spread, while low precipitation chances and minimal cloud cover reduce upside or downside volatility. Traders are monitoring the next 48-hour model runs from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF for any late adjustments ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 14 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 14 de septiembre?
34°C 53%
35°C 28%
33°C 17%
32°C 1.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
14 sep 2026
29°C o menos
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
17%
34°C
53%
35°C
28%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
1%
39°C o más
<1%
34°C 53%
35°C 28%
33°C 17%
32°C 1.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
14 sep 2026
29°C o menos
$233 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$441 Vol.
1%
31°C
$221 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$233 Vol.
2%
33°C
$1,369 Vol.
17%
34°C
$1,074 Vol.
53%
35°C
$1,462 Vol.
28%
36°C
$256 Vol.
1%
37°C
$221 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$221 Vol.
1%
39°C o más
$236 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear, stable high-pressure conditions over central Spain are positioning Madrid for a maximum temperature near 34°C on September 14, driving the 53% market-implied probability for that exact outcome.** Official forecasts from multiple models show sunny skies, light southerly winds, and afternoon highs of 33–34°C (roughly 91–93°F), consistent with the historical average high of 26.8°C but elevated by persistent anticyclonic weather. This places 34°C and 35°C (26.5%) as the clear frontrunners, with 33°C (18.5%) as the main alternative if models trend slightly cooler. The all-time September 14 record of 34.4°C adds context for the narrow spread, while low precipitation chances and minimal cloud cover reduce upside or downside volatility. Traders are monitoring the next 48-hour model runs from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF for any late adjustments ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$5,969Fecha de finalización
14 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear, stable high-pressure conditions over central Spain are positioning Madrid for a maximum temperature near 34°C on September 14, driving the 53% market-implied probability for that exact outcome.** Official forecasts from multiple models show sunny skies, light southerly winds, and afternoon highs of 33–34°C (roughly 91–93°F), consistent with the historical average high of 26.8°C but elevated by persistent anticyclonic weather. This places 34°C and 35°C (26.5%) as the clear frontrunners, with 33°C (18.5%) as the main alternative if models trend slightly cooler. The all-time September 14 record of 34.4°C adds context for the narrow spread, while low precipitation chances and minimal cloud cover reduce upside or downside volatility. Traders are monitoring the next 48-hour model runs from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF for any late adjustments ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$5,969Fecha de finalización
14 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Clear, stable high-pressure conditions over central Spain are positioning Madrid for a maximum temperature near 34°C on September 14, driving the 53% market-implied probability for that exact outcome.** Official forecasts from multiple models show sunny skies, light southerly winds, and afternoon highs of 33–34°C (roughly 91–93°F), consistent with the historical average high of 26.8°C but elevated by persistent anticyclonic weather. This places 34°C and 35°C (26.5%) as the clear frontrunners, with 33°C (18.5%) as the main alternative if models trend slightly cooler. The all-time September 14 record of 34.4°C adds context for the narrow spread, while low precipitation chances and minimal cloud cover reduce upside or downside volatility. Traders are monitoring the next 48-hour model runs from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF for any late adjustments ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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