Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including Russian Hydrometeorological Center models and international ensembles, indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on September 3 will likely range from 13–15°C overnight under persistent cloud cover, light westerly winds, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. This exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 10.3°C for the date while remaining well below the 18°C threshold. Model consensus shows limited spread, with steering patterns favoring mild Atlantic air advection rather than colder continental outbreaks. The elevated market-implied probability for 18°C or higher reflects trader weighting of recent above-average daytime warmth and potential for forecast revisions, while clustering around 12–14°C aligns with the latest observational guidance and historical September variability. Updated model runs expected overnight will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Moscú el 3 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Moscú el 3 de septiembre?
18°C or higher 87%
15°C 50%
16°C 50%
12°C 27%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 sep 2026
8°C or below
6%
9°C
26%
10°C
27%
11°C
27%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
26%
15°C
50%
16°C
50%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
87%
18°C or higher 87%
15°C 50%
16°C 50%
12°C 27%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 sep 2026
8°C or below
$5 Vol.
6%
9°C
$25 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
27%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$5 Vol.
50%
16°C
$16 Vol.
50%
17°C
$5 Vol.
2%
18°C or higher
$5 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including Russian Hydrometeorological Center models and international ensembles, indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on September 3 will likely range from 13–15°C overnight under persistent cloud cover, light westerly winds, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. This exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 10.3°C for the date while remaining well below the 18°C threshold. Model consensus shows limited spread, with steering patterns favoring mild Atlantic air advection rather than colder continental outbreaks. The elevated market-implied probability for 18°C or higher reflects trader weighting of recent above-average daytime warmth and potential for forecast revisions, while clustering around 12–14°C aligns with the latest observational guidance and historical September variability. Updated model runs expected overnight will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$61Fecha de finalización
3 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including Russian Hydrometeorological Center models and international ensembles, indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on September 3 will likely range from 13–15°C overnight under persistent cloud cover, light westerly winds, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. This exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 10.3°C for the date while remaining well below the 18°C threshold. Model consensus shows limited spread, with steering patterns favoring mild Atlantic air advection rather than colder continental outbreaks. The elevated market-implied probability for 18°C or higher reflects trader weighting of recent above-average daytime warmth and potential for forecast revisions, while clustering around 12–14°C aligns with the latest observational guidance and historical September variability. Updated model runs expected overnight will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$61Fecha de finalización
3 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including Russian Hydrometeorological Center models and international ensembles, indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on September 3 will likely range from 13–15°C overnight under persistent cloud cover, light westerly winds, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. This exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 10.3°C for the date while remaining well below the 18°C threshold. Model consensus shows limited spread, with steering patterns favoring mild Atlantic air advection rather than colder continental outbreaks. The elevated market-implied probability for 18°C or higher reflects trader weighting of recent above-average daytime warmth and potential for forecast revisions, while clustering around 12–14°C aligns with the latest observational guidance and historical September variability. Updated model runs expected overnight will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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