**Consensus meteorological forecasts from multiple models and official sources strongly support a 22°C minimum temperature in Shanghai on September 21, 2026, aligning with the market's 98.5% implied probability.** Regional pressure patterns and northeasterly winds have maintained stable overnight conditions with moderate humidity and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Official guidance, including Shanghai Meteorological Bureau outlooks, projects a low of 22°C, consistent with historical September baselines and current ensemble runs showing minimal spread around this value. The primary catalyst remains the agreement across short-range models on nocturnal temperatures. A realistic challenge could arise from clearer-than-expected skies accelerating cooling to 21°C or persistent cloud cover and higher dew points holding the minimum at 23°C, though current data indicate low likelihood of significant deviation before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 21 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 21 de septiembre?
22°C 96%
21°C 4%
20°C <1%
17°C o menos <1%
$20,497 Vol.
$20,497 Vol.
21 sep 2026
17°C o menos
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
4%
22°C
96%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C o más
<1%
22°C 96%
21°C 4%
20°C <1%
17°C o menos <1%
$20,497 Vol.
$20,497 Vol.
21 sep 2026
17°C o menos
$4,934 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$7,546 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$36 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$540 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$465 Vol.
4%
22°C
$2,156 Vol.
96%
23°C
$3,340 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$459 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$36 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
27°C o más
$938 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Consensus meteorological forecasts from multiple models and official sources strongly support a 22°C minimum temperature in Shanghai on September 21, 2026, aligning with the market's 98.5% implied probability.**
Regional pressure patterns and northeasterly winds have maintained stable overnight conditions with moderate humidity and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Official guidance, including Shanghai Meteorological Bureau outlooks, projects a low of 22°C, consistent with historical September baselines and current ensemble runs showing minimal spread around this value.
The primary catalyst remains the agreement across short-range models on nocturnal temperatures. A realistic challenge could arise from clearer-than-expected skies accelerating cooling to 21°C or persistent cloud cover and higher dew points holding the minimum at 23°C, though current data indicate low likelihood of significant deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$20,497Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Consensus meteorological forecasts from multiple models and official sources strongly support a 22°C minimum temperature in Shanghai on September 21, 2026, aligning with the market's 98.5% implied probability.**
Regional pressure patterns and northeasterly winds have maintained stable overnight conditions with moderate humidity and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Official guidance, including Shanghai Meteorological Bureau outlooks, projects a low of 22°C, consistent with historical September baselines and current ensemble runs showing minimal spread around this value.
The primary catalyst remains the agreement across short-range models on nocturnal temperatures. A realistic challenge could arise from clearer-than-expected skies accelerating cooling to 21°C or persistent cloud cover and higher dew points holding the minimum at 23°C, though current data indicate low likelihood of significant deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$20,497Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Consensus meteorological forecasts from multiple models and official sources strongly support a 22°C minimum temperature in Shanghai on September 21, 2026, aligning with the market's 98.5% implied probability.** Regional pressure patterns and northeasterly winds have maintained stable overnight conditions with moderate humidity and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Official guidance, including Shanghai Meteorological Bureau outlooks, projects a low of 22°C, consistent with historical September baselines and current ensemble runs showing minimal spread around this value. The primary catalyst remains the agreement across short-range models on nocturnal temperatures. A realistic challenge could arise from clearer-than-expected skies accelerating cooling to 21°C or persistent cloud cover and higher dew points holding the minimum at 23°C, though current data indicate low likelihood of significant deviation before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes