Traders see the lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 22 clustered tightly between 12–15 °C because short-range forecast models show only modest differences in overnight radiative cooling under a weak high-pressure ridge. Clear or partly cloudy skies and light winds would favor the lower end near 12–13 °C, while increased cloud cover or a slightly warmer maritime air mass would hold readings around 14–15 °C. Official guidance from European meteorological centers highlights small uncertainties in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage that could alter minimums by 1–2 °C. With resolution just hours away, the market reflects the narrow spread among ensemble members rather than any major shift in large-scale pattern.