Recent model runs and official guidance from MetService and NIWA highlight a transitional synoptic pattern over Wellington, with a high-pressure ridge giving way to a northward-advancing front that introduces variability in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Northerly flow ahead of the system favors minimum temperatures near 11–12 °C by limiting clear-sky heat loss, while any earlier shift to southerlies or reduced cloud cover could enhance nocturnal cooling toward 8 °C or lower. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs remain wide for the 15–16 September window, reflecting uncertainty in exact frontal timing and wind speeds that directly control the daily minimum. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to sub-8 °C and 17 °C-plus outcomes, underscoring how small changes in advection versus local cooling rates can swing the recorded low across the market’s key thresholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Wellington el 16 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Wellington el 16 de septiembre?
7°C o menos 100%
17°C o más 94%
11°C 40%
8°C 39%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
7°C o menos
100%
8°C
39%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
40%
12°C
30%
13°C
39%
14°C
39%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C o más
94%
7°C o menos 100%
17°C o más 94%
11°C 40%
8°C 39%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
7°C o menos
$0 Vol.
100%
8°C
$0 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
30%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C o más
$0 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs and official guidance from MetService and NIWA highlight a transitional synoptic pattern over Wellington, with a high-pressure ridge giving way to a northward-advancing front that introduces variability in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Northerly flow ahead of the system favors minimum temperatures near 11–12 °C by limiting clear-sky heat loss, while any earlier shift to southerlies or reduced cloud cover could enhance nocturnal cooling toward 8 °C or lower. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs remain wide for the 15–16 September window, reflecting uncertainty in exact frontal timing and wind speeds that directly control the daily minimum. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to sub-8 °C and 17 °C-plus outcomes, underscoring how small changes in advection versus local cooling rates can swing the recorded low across the market’s key thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs and official guidance from MetService and NIWA highlight a transitional synoptic pattern over Wellington, with a high-pressure ridge giving way to a northward-advancing front that introduces variability in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Northerly flow ahead of the system favors minimum temperatures near 11–12 °C by limiting clear-sky heat loss, while any earlier shift to southerlies or reduced cloud cover could enhance nocturnal cooling toward 8 °C or lower. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs remain wide for the 15–16 September window, reflecting uncertainty in exact frontal timing and wind speeds that directly control the daily minimum. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to sub-8 °C and 17 °C-plus outcomes, underscoring how small changes in advection versus local cooling rates can swing the recorded low across the market’s key thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs and official guidance from MetService and NIWA highlight a transitional synoptic pattern over Wellington, with a high-pressure ridge giving way to a northward-advancing front that introduces variability in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Northerly flow ahead of the system favors minimum temperatures near 11–12 °C by limiting clear-sky heat loss, while any earlier shift to southerlies or reduced cloud cover could enhance nocturnal cooling toward 8 °C or lower. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs remain wide for the 15–16 September window, reflecting uncertainty in exact frontal timing and wind speeds that directly control the daily minimum. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to sub-8 °C and 17 °C-plus outcomes, underscoring how small changes in advection versus local cooling rates can swing the recorded low across the market’s key thresholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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