Current ensemble forecasts from global models place Wuhan's September 20 minimum near 23–24 °C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow. Subtropical humidity and residual summer warmth limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while the absence of a strong cold-air intrusion or clear-sky conditions keeps the floor well above 18 °C. At the same time, daytime maxima near 29–30 °C and lingering moisture make a 28 °C-or-higher low unlikely. The near-even split between the two leading contracts reflects residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact cloud timing rather than any fundamental shift in the synoptic pattern. Updated runs from the next 24–48 hours will narrow the range before resolution.