Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat, with traders assigning the party a 77.5 percent implied probability of holding the House seat in November 2026. The district’s R+6 partisan voting index, anchored in suburban St. Louis counties, has consistently supported Republican candidates, most recently delivering incumbent Ann Wagner a 54.5 percent victory in 2024. Multiple Republicans, including Wagner, have filed for the August 4 primary, while Democrats field a competitive primary slate but face structural headwinds. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to its target list in 2025, yet independent race raters continue to classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Primary outcomes and any late-cycle national environment shifts remain the principal variables that could alter the current market positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMO-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
MO-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
78%
Partido Demócrata
20%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$3,095 Vol.
78%
Partido Demócrata
$2,217 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat, with traders assigning the party a 77.5 percent implied probability of holding the House seat in November 2026. The district’s R+6 partisan voting index, anchored in suburban St. Louis counties, has consistently supported Republican candidates, most recently delivering incumbent Ann Wagner a 54.5 percent victory in 2024. Multiple Republicans, including Wagner, have filed for the August 4 primary, while Democrats field a competitive primary slate but face structural headwinds. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to its target list in 2025, yet independent race raters continue to classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Primary outcomes and any late-cycle national environment shifts remain the principal variables that could alter the current market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$5,312Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat, with traders assigning the party a 77.5 percent implied probability of holding the House seat in November 2026. The district’s R+6 partisan voting index, anchored in suburban St. Louis counties, has consistently supported Republican candidates, most recently delivering incumbent Ann Wagner a 54.5 percent victory in 2024. Multiple Republicans, including Wagner, have filed for the August 4 primary, while Democrats field a competitive primary slate but face structural headwinds. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to its target list in 2025, yet independent race raters continue to classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Primary outcomes and any late-cycle national environment shifts remain the principal variables that could alter the current market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$5,312Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat, with traders assigning the party a 77.5 percent implied probability of holding the House seat in November 2026. The district’s R+6 partisan voting index, anchored in suburban St. Louis counties, has consistently supported Republican candidates, most recently delivering incumbent Ann Wagner a 54.5 percent victory in 2024. Multiple Republicans, including Wagner, have filed for the August 4 primary, while Democrats field a competitive primary slate but face structural headwinds. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to its target list in 2025, yet independent race raters continue to classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Primary outcomes and any late-cycle national environment shifts remain the principal variables that could alter the current market positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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