Republican incumbent Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with 77.7% of the vote and faces Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November 3 general election for Missouri's 4th congressional district. The seat's partisan lean, reinforced by the 2025 redistricting map upheld by state courts, produces consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting voter registration patterns, past turnout, and the district's rural and suburban composition stretching from southern Jackson County through central and southwest Missouri. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors. A late national shift, candidate withdrawal, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the gap, though no such developments have surfaced in the current cycle.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMO-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
MO-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$49,439 Vol.
$49,439 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
92%
Partido Demócrata
8%
$49,439 Vol.
$49,439 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$32,363 Vol.
92%
Partido Demócrata
$17,076 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with 77.7% of the vote and faces Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November 3 general election for Missouri's 4th congressional district. The seat's partisan lean, reinforced by the 2025 redistricting map upheld by state courts, produces consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting voter registration patterns, past turnout, and the district's rural and suburban composition stretching from southern Jackson County through central and southwest Missouri. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors. A late national shift, candidate withdrawal, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the gap, though no such developments have surfaced in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$49,439Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with 77.7% of the vote and faces Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November 3 general election for Missouri's 4th congressional district. The seat's partisan lean, reinforced by the 2025 redistricting map upheld by state courts, produces consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting voter registration patterns, past turnout, and the district's rural and suburban composition stretching from southern Jackson County through central and southwest Missouri. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors. A late national shift, candidate withdrawal, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the gap, though no such developments have surfaced in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$49,439Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with 77.7% of the vote and faces Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November 3 general election for Missouri's 4th congressional district. The seat's partisan lean, reinforced by the 2025 redistricting map upheld by state courts, produces consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting voter registration patterns, past turnout, and the district's rural and suburban composition stretching from southern Jackson County through central and southwest Missouri. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors. A late national shift, candidate withdrawal, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the gap, though no such developments have surfaced in the current cycle.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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