Missouri’s 4th congressional district features a heavily Republican voter base across rural counties and suburban areas south of Kansas City, reflected in the incumbent Republican representative Mark Alford’s 71% margin in the 2024 general election. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican ahead of the August 4 primary and November 3 general election, where Alford faces limited primary opposition while Democrats field multiple candidates without established infrastructure or recent competitive showings. Trader consensus at 92.5% Republican probability aligns with these structural factors and consistent historical results. Late developments that could alter outcomes include major candidate scandals, successful legal challenges to the current district map, or unusually high opposition turnout in the general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMO-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
MO-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$34,928 Vol.
$34,928 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
93%
Partido Demócrata
7%
$34,928 Vol.
$34,928 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$20,778 Vol.
93%
Partido Demócrata
$14,150 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district features a heavily Republican voter base across rural counties and suburban areas south of Kansas City, reflected in the incumbent Republican representative Mark Alford’s 71% margin in the 2024 general election. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican ahead of the August 4 primary and November 3 general election, where Alford faces limited primary opposition while Democrats field multiple candidates without established infrastructure or recent competitive showings. Trader consensus at 92.5% Republican probability aligns with these structural factors and consistent historical results. Late developments that could alter outcomes include major candidate scandals, successful legal challenges to the current district map, or unusually high opposition turnout in the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$34,928Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district features a heavily Republican voter base across rural counties and suburban areas south of Kansas City, reflected in the incumbent Republican representative Mark Alford’s 71% margin in the 2024 general election. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican ahead of the August 4 primary and November 3 general election, where Alford faces limited primary opposition while Democrats field multiple candidates without established infrastructure or recent competitive showings. Trader consensus at 92.5% Republican probability aligns with these structural factors and consistent historical results. Late developments that could alter outcomes include major candidate scandals, successful legal challenges to the current district map, or unusually high opposition turnout in the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$34,928Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 4th congressional district features a heavily Republican voter base across rural counties and suburban areas south of Kansas City, reflected in the incumbent Republican representative Mark Alford’s 71% margin in the 2024 general election. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican ahead of the August 4 primary and November 3 general election, where Alford faces limited primary opposition while Democrats field multiple candidates without established infrastructure or recent competitive showings. Trader consensus at 92.5% Republican probability aligns with these structural factors and consistent historical results. Late developments that could alter outcomes include major candidate scandals, successful legal challenges to the current district map, or unusually high opposition turnout in the general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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