**Persistent severe drought across the Southern Plains, Southwest, and parts of the West—driven by the contiguous U.S. recording its warmest June–August on record in 2026 with below-normal precipitation—has produced widespread D4 (Exceptional Drought) conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor.** As of the September 15, 2026 map, D4 covers 1.7% of the U.S., with notable areas in states such as Texas and Oklahoma (where over half the state is in D3–D4) and additional coverage likely spanning multiple Western and Plains states. This supports the market’s strong 94% implied probability for 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 22. Flash drought intensification in the Southern Plains and limited near-term relief in core drought regions underpin trader consensus. Realistic challenges include heavier-than-expected late-September rainfall that could shrink D4 footprints below the threshold in marginal states, or revisions in the next USDM release reflecting localized improvements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos estados estarán en D4 (sequía excepcional) — semana del 22 de septiembre de 2026?
¿Cuántos estados estarán en D4 (sequía excepcional) — semana del 22 de septiembre de 2026?
10 o más estados 94%
7-9 estados 5%
1-2 estados 3.0%
3-4 estados 3.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 sep 2026
0 estados
1%
1-2 estados
3%
3-4 estados
3%
5-6 estados
3%
7-9 estados
5%
10 o más estados
94%
10 o más estados 94%
7-9 estados 5%
1-2 estados 3.0%
3-4 estados 3.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 sep 2026
0 estados
$25 Vol.
1%
1-2 estados
$0 Vol.
3%
3-4 estados
$0 Vol.
3%
5-6 estados
$0 Vol.
3%
7-9 estados
$0 Vol.
5%
10 o más estados
$0 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Persistent severe drought across the Southern Plains, Southwest, and parts of the West—driven by the contiguous U.S. recording its warmest June–August on record in 2026 with below-normal precipitation—has produced widespread D4 (Exceptional Drought) conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor.** As of the September 15, 2026 map, D4 covers 1.7% of the U.S., with notable areas in states such as Texas and Oklahoma (where over half the state is in D3–D4) and additional coverage likely spanning multiple Western and Plains states. This supports the market’s strong 94% implied probability for 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 22.
Flash drought intensification in the Southern Plains and limited near-term relief in core drought regions underpin trader consensus. Realistic challenges include heavier-than-expected late-September rainfall that could shrink D4 footprints below the threshold in marginal states, or revisions in the next USDM release reflecting localized improvements.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Mercado abierto: Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volumen
$25Fecha de finalización
24 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Persistent severe drought across the Southern Plains, Southwest, and parts of the West—driven by the contiguous U.S. recording its warmest June–August on record in 2026 with below-normal precipitation—has produced widespread D4 (Exceptional Drought) conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor.** As of the September 15, 2026 map, D4 covers 1.7% of the U.S., with notable areas in states such as Texas and Oklahoma (where over half the state is in D3–D4) and additional coverage likely spanning multiple Western and Plains states. This supports the market’s strong 94% implied probability for 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 22.
Flash drought intensification in the Southern Plains and limited near-term relief in core drought regions underpin trader consensus. Realistic challenges include heavier-than-expected late-September rainfall that could shrink D4 footprints below the threshold in marginal states, or revisions in the next USDM release reflecting localized improvements.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volumen
$25Fecha de finalización
24 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent severe drought across the Southern Plains, Southwest, and parts of the West—driven by the contiguous U.S. recording its warmest June–August on record in 2026 with below-normal precipitation—has produced widespread D4 (Exceptional Drought) conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor.** As of the September 15, 2026 map, D4 covers 1.7% of the U.S., with notable areas in states such as Texas and Oklahoma (where over half the state is in D3–D4) and additional coverage likely spanning multiple Western and Plains states. This supports the market’s strong 94% implied probability for 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 22. Flash drought intensification in the Southern Plains and limited near-term relief in core drought regions underpin trader consensus. Realistic challenges include heavier-than-expected late-September rainfall that could shrink D4 footprints below the threshold in marginal states, or revisions in the next USDM release reflecting localized improvements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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