Thailand held its February 8, 2026 legislative elections and concurrent constitutional referendum, after which results were certified and parliament seated. In mid-March the Constitutional Court accepted an ombudsman petition alleging that barcodes or QR codes on ballots could compromise secrecy, voting 6-3 to request an Election Commission response within fifteen days. Since then the court has taken no further procedural steps such as scheduling hearings or expanding the case, consistent with its pattern of targeted interventions against parties or officials rather than broad annulment of certified national results. Traders therefore assign a 97.9 percent probability to “No” by the June 30 resolution deadline. The only remaining realistic scenarios that could alter this outcome involve an unexpected late-June ruling or accelerated hearing that directly invalidates the election on secrecy grounds.