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Política·Trump

¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?
Política·Trump

¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?

ene 1, 2027

ene 1, 2027

$1,400,845 Vol.

31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$1,400,845 Vol.

Polymarket

Kristi Noem

$97,520 Vol.

33%

Dan Scavino

$137 Vol.

29%

Tom Homan

$243 Vol.

27%

Howard Lutnick

$94,437 Vol.

25%

Kash Patel

$304,015 Vol.

25%

Susie Wiles

$55,831 Vol.

24%

Pete Hegseth

$126,694 Vol.

22%

David Sacks

$9,151 Vol.

22%

Lee Zeldin

$31,760 Vol.

22%

Russell Vought

$284 Vol.

18%

Markwayne Mullin

$2,631 Vol.

24%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$90,880 Vol.

15%

John Ratcliffe

$554 Vol.

14%

Stephen Miller

$3,769 Vol.

13%

Scott Bessent

$7,892 Vol.

9%

Marco Rubio

$19,710 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High turnover has defined the second Trump administration, with at least four cabinet-level officials departing by mid-2026 through firings or resignations amid internal frictions, policy disputes, and personal factors. Notable exits include the Homeland Security secretary in March, the attorney general in April, the labor secretary the same month, and the director of national intelligence in May for family reasons, alongside White House staff changes such as the press secretary's planned August departure. Record rates among non-Senate-confirmed appointees exceed prior administrations, reflecting rapid staffing shifts across agencies. Traders price elevated departure risks for defense and intelligence figures given ongoing tensions and the administration's approach to personnel ahead of the 2026 midterms and into 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$1,400,845
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Jul 15, 2026, 3:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High turnover has defined the second Trump administration, with at least four cabinet-level officials departing by mid-2026 through firings or resignations amid internal frictions, policy disputes, and personal factors. Notable exits include the Homeland Security secretary in March, the attorney general in April, the labor secretary the same month, and the director of national intelligence in May for family reasons, alongside White House staff changes such as the press secretary's planned August departure. Record rates among non-Senate-confirmed appointees exceed prior administrations, reflecting rapid staffing shifts across agencies. Traders price elevated departure risks for defense and intelligence figures given ongoing tensions and the administration's approach to personnel ahead of the 2026 midterms and into 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$1,400,845
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Jul 15, 2026, 3:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 21 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Karoline Leavitt" con 100%, seguido de "Tulsi Gabbard" con 100%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?" ha generado $1.4 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?", explora los 21 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?" es "Karoline Leavitt" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Tulsi Gabbard" con 100%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.