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Política·Trump

¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?
Política·Trump

¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?

ene 1, 2027

ene 1, 2027

$1,408,403 Vol.

31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$1,408,403 Vol.

Polymarket

Dan Scavino

$137 Vol.

30%

Pete Hegseth

$128,228 Vol.

28%

Lee Zeldin

$31,971 Vol.

27%

Howard Lutnick

$94,591 Vol.

24%

Susie Wiles

$56,648 Vol.

21%

David Sacks

$9,216 Vol.

18%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$91,214 Vol.

17%

Kash Patel

$306,033 Vol.

17%

Kristi Noem

$97,855 Vol.

27%

Stephen Miller

$3,975 Vol.

12%

Markwayne Mullin

$2,633 Vol.

24%

John Ratcliffe

$572 Vol.

12%

Russell Vought

$284 Vol.

16%

Tom Homan

$253 Vol.

18%

Marco Rubio

$20,245 Vol.

8%

Scott Bessent

$9,208 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Record turnover among political appointees has defined the second Trump administration, with 934 non-Senate-confirmed officials departing in the first 18 months—more than double the pace under Biden or Obama and well above Trump’s first term. Senate-confirmed Cabinet-level exits include fired DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi in March–April 2026, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s April resignation, and DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s May departure for family health reasons; White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced her exit in August for personal reasons. Additional senior aides and agency officials have followed amid policy execution demands, internal frictions, and private-sector opportunities. With three-plus months remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff and midterms approaching, trader consensus reflects the administration’s established pattern of rapid personnel changes at multiple levels.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$1,408,403
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Jul 15, 2026, 3:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Record turnover among political appointees has defined the second Trump administration, with 934 non-Senate-confirmed officials departing in the first 18 months—more than double the pace under Biden or Obama and well above Trump’s first term. Senate-confirmed Cabinet-level exits include fired DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi in March–April 2026, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s April resignation, and DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s May departure for family health reasons; White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced her exit in August for personal reasons. Additional senior aides and agency officials have followed amid policy execution demands, internal frictions, and private-sector opportunities. With three-plus months remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff and midterms approaching, trader consensus reflects the administration’s established pattern of rapid personnel changes at multiple levels.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$1,408,403
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Jul 15, 2026, 3:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 21 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Karoline Leavitt" con 100%, seguido de "Tulsi Gabbard" con 100%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?" ha generado $1.4 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?", explora los 21 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?" es "Karoline Leavitt" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Tulsi Gabbard" con 100%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Quién dejará la Administración Trump antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.