Tropical Storm Dolly's rapid degeneration into an open wave has driven the near-certain market consensus against hurricane strengthening. Formed on August 27 with peak sustained winds of only 40 mph, Dolly encountered increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast forward motion near 25 mph, and dry air aloft, preventing organization as confirmed by National Hurricane Center observations and satellite imagery by August 28. Official forecasts show the remnants continuing westward into the Leeward Islands with further weakening and dissipation expected within days, consistent with model consensus. While warm sea surface temperatures exist regionally, the current atmospheric environment strongly favors continued decay. A low-probability regeneration over the western Atlantic or Gulf remains possible per some guidance but lacks support in reliable models and faces ongoing shear.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La tormenta tropical Dolly se convertirá en un huracán?
¿La tormenta tropical Dolly se convertirá en un huracán?
Sí
2% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 sep 2026
Sí
2% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly's rapid degeneration into an open wave has driven the near-certain market consensus against hurricane strengthening. Formed on August 27 with peak sustained winds of only 40 mph, Dolly encountered increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast forward motion near 25 mph, and dry air aloft, preventing organization as confirmed by National Hurricane Center observations and satellite imagery by August 28. Official forecasts show the remnants continuing westward into the Leeward Islands with further weakening and dissipation expected within days, consistent with model consensus. While warm sea surface temperatures exist regionally, the current atmospheric environment strongly favors continued decay. A low-probability regeneration over the western Atlantic or Gulf remains possible per some guidance but lacks support in reliable models and faces ongoing shear.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volumen
$725Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly's rapid degeneration into an open wave has driven the near-certain market consensus against hurricane strengthening. Formed on August 27 with peak sustained winds of only 40 mph, Dolly encountered increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast forward motion near 25 mph, and dry air aloft, preventing organization as confirmed by National Hurricane Center observations and satellite imagery by August 28. Official forecasts show the remnants continuing westward into the Leeward Islands with further weakening and dissipation expected within days, consistent with model consensus. While warm sea surface temperatures exist regionally, the current atmospheric environment strongly favors continued decay. A low-probability regeneration over the western Atlantic or Gulf remains possible per some guidance but lacks support in reliable models and faces ongoing shear.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$725Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Dolly's rapid degeneration into an open wave has driven the near-certain market consensus against hurricane strengthening. Formed on August 27 with peak sustained winds of only 40 mph, Dolly encountered increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast forward motion near 25 mph, and dry air aloft, preventing organization as confirmed by National Hurricane Center observations and satellite imagery by August 28. Official forecasts show the remnants continuing westward into the Leeward Islands with further weakening and dissipation expected within days, consistent with model consensus. While warm sea surface temperatures exist regionally, the current atmospheric environment strongly favors continued decay. A low-probability regeneration over the western Atlantic or Gulf remains possible per some guidance but lacks support in reliable models and faces ongoing shear.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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