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Tech·App Store

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?

icon for #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?
Tech·App Store

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?

Ended: May 5

Jul 31

Ended: May 5

Jul 31

ChatGPT 100.0%

Claude by Anthropic <1%

Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses <1%

Freecash - Get Paid Real Money <1%

Polymarket

$13,541 Vol.

ChatGPT 100.0%

Claude by Anthropic <1%

Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses <1%

Freecash - Get Paid Real Money <1%

Polymarket

$13,541 Vol.

icon for ChatGPT

ChatGPT

$8,788 Vol.

Yes

icon for Claude by Anthropic

Claude by Anthropic

$1,544 Vol.

No

icon for Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses

Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses

$351 Vol.

No

icon for Freecash - Get Paid Real Money

Freecash - Get Paid Real Money

$351 Vol.

No

icon for Netflix Game Controller

Netflix Game Controller

$494 Vol.

No

icon for Google Gemini

Google Gemini

$351 Vol.

No

icon for Google

Google

$502 Vol.

No

icon for Threads

Threads

$351 Vol.

No

icon for TurboTax: File Your Tax Return

TurboTax: File Your Tax Return

$809 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).ChatGPT commands a commanding 97.7% implied probability as the #1 free iPhone app in the US Apple App Store on May 5, driven by its sustained chart dominance and explosive download growth as the premier AI chatbot, consistently topping daily rankings like those on May 1 amid ongoing hype from features such as advanced image generation and cross-device sync. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in OpenAI's entrenched user base, outpacing rivals after Claude by Anthropic's brief #1 surges earlier in 2026 tied to Anthropic's Pentagon contract backlash. Realistic upsets hinge on late-day viral momentum for Claude (4.2%) via social buzz or shopping apps like ALO spiking downloads, though AI frontrunners rarely relinquish top spots without major news; monitor intraday charts as the daily snapshot nears.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Volume
$13,541
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).ChatGPT commands a commanding 97.7% implied probability as the #1 free iPhone app in the US Apple App Store on May 5, driven by its sustained chart dominance and explosive download growth as the premier AI chatbot, consistently topping daily rankings like those on May 1 amid ongoing hype from features such as advanced image generation and cross-device sync. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in OpenAI's entrenched user base, outpacing rivals after Claude by Anthropic's brief #1 surges earlier in 2026 tied to Anthropic's Pentagon contract backlash. Realistic upsets hinge on late-day viral momentum for Claude (4.2%) via social buzz or shopping apps like ALO spiking downloads, though AI frontrunners rarely relinquish top spots without major news; monitor intraday charts as the daily snapshot nears.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Volume
$13,541
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?

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Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "ChatGPT" at 100%, followed by "Claude by Anthropic" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?" has generated $13.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?" is "ChatGPT" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Claude by Anthropic" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.