Trader consensus heavily favors Claude by Anthropic at 82% implied probability to claim the #2 free app spot in the US Apple App Store on April 17, driven by TurboTax's sharp post-tax-season decline after the April 15 deadline eroded its prior #2-3 positioning. Currently ranking #2 or #3 behind stable leader ChatGPT, Claude benefits from Anthropic's February 2026 Opus 4.6 model topping AI benchmarks, fueling sustained iOS downloads amid fierce large language model competition. Challengers like Google Gemini (19%), Meta AI (20%), and ChatGPT (20.5%) show momentum but lack Claude's recent surge, with Netflix Game Controller (20%) buoyed by gaming trends; resolution hinges on final 24-hour download shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedClaude by Anthropic 91%
ChatGPT 21%
Netflix Game Controller 20%
Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses 19%

Claude by Anthropic
82%

ChatGPT
21%

Netflix Game Controller
20%

Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses
19%

Google Gemini
18%

TurboTax: File Your Tax Return
3%

<1%

Freecash - Get Paid Real Money
<1%

Threads
<1%
Claude by Anthropic 91%
ChatGPT 21%
Netflix Game Controller 20%
Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses 19%

Claude by Anthropic
82%

ChatGPT
21%

Netflix Game Controller
20%

Meta AI - Assistant & Glasses
19%

Google Gemini
18%

TurboTax: File Your Tax Return
3%

<1%

Freecash - Get Paid Real Money
<1%

Threads
<1%
To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors Claude by Anthropic at 82% implied probability to claim the #2 free app spot in the US Apple App Store on April 17, driven by TurboTax's sharp post-tax-season decline after the April 15 deadline eroded its prior #2-3 positioning. Currently ranking #2 or #3 behind stable leader ChatGPT, Claude benefits from Anthropic's February 2026 Opus 4.6 model topping AI benchmarks, fueling sustained iOS downloads amid fierce large language model competition. Challengers like Google Gemini (19%), Meta AI (20%), and ChatGPT (20.5%) show momentum but lack Claude's recent surge, with Netflix Game Controller (20%) buoyed by gaming trends; resolution hinges on final 24-hour download shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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