Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates an average of 15–16 magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes occur worldwide each year, with six recorded so far in 2026 including a 7.8 near the Philippines on June 7. Recent activity aligns with historical patterns on major fault systems, where tectonic stress release follows variable but statistically consistent intervals rather than predictable cycles. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline frequency alongside the inherent uncertainty in short-term forecasting, as individual events depend on localized stress accumulation undetectable in advance. Continuous USGS real-time catalogs and magnitude threshold definitions remain the key data releases influencing resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
$58,891 Vol.
May 31, 2026
April 30
No
May 15
No
May 30
No
June 30
Yes
$58,891 Vol.
April 30
$13,247 Vol.
No
May 15
$10,052 Vol.
No
May 30
$31,297 Vol.
No
June 30
$4,294 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates an average of 15–16 magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes occur worldwide each year, with six recorded so far in 2026 including a 7.8 near the Philippines on June 7. Recent activity aligns with historical patterns on major fault systems, where tectonic stress release follows variable but statistically consistent intervals rather than predictable cycles. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline frequency alongside the inherent uncertainty in short-term forecasting, as individual events depend on localized stress accumulation undetectable in advance. Continuous USGS real-time catalogs and magnitude threshold definitions remain the key data releases influencing resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$58,891End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates an average of 15–16 magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes occur worldwide each year, with six recorded so far in 2026 including a 7.8 near the Philippines on June 7. Recent activity aligns with historical patterns on major fault systems, where tectonic stress release follows variable but statistically consistent intervals rather than predictable cycles. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline frequency alongside the inherent uncertainty in short-term forecasting, as individual events depend on localized stress accumulation undetectable in advance. Continuous USGS real-time catalogs and magnitude threshold definitions remain the key data releases influencing resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$58,891End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates an average of 15–16 magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes occur worldwide each year, with six recorded so far in 2026 including a 7.8 near the Philippines on June 7. Recent activity aligns with historical patterns on major fault systems, where tectonic stress release follows variable but statistically consistent intervals rather than predictable cycles. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline frequency alongside the inherent uncertainty in short-term forecasting, as individual events depend on localized stress accumulation undetectable in advance. Continuous USGS real-time catalogs and magnitude threshold definitions remain the key data releases influencing resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions