Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7 centers on 26–28°C outcomes because numerical weather models show modest spread in overnight radiative cooling under typical summer humidity and light winds. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures aligns with climatological July minima clustering around 27°C, while recent model runs indicate possible weak disturbances or increased cloud cover that could shave 1–2°C off the low. Higher or lower extremes remain low-probability given the absence of strong synoptic forcing or clear, calm nights that would allow greater cooling. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$72,814 Vol.
$72,814 Vol.
Jul 7, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$72,814 Vol.
$72,814 Vol.
Jul 7, 2026
22°C or below
$4,388 Vol.
No
23°C
$4,370 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,284 Vol.
No
25°C
$10,255 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$16,271 Vol.
No
27°C
$16,722 Vol.
No
28°C
$8,115 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,021 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,454 Vol.
No
31°C
$2,156 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$1,777 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7 centers on 26–28°C outcomes because numerical weather models show modest spread in overnight radiative cooling under typical summer humidity and light winds. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures aligns with climatological July minima clustering around 27°C, while recent model runs indicate possible weak disturbances or increased cloud cover that could shave 1–2°C off the low. Higher or lower extremes remain low-probability given the absence of strong synoptic forcing or clear, calm nights that would allow greater cooling. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$72,814End Date
Jul 7, 2026Market Opened
Jul 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7 centers on 26–28°C outcomes because numerical weather models show modest spread in overnight radiative cooling under typical summer humidity and light winds. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures aligns with climatological July minima clustering around 27°C, while recent model runs indicate possible weak disturbances or increased cloud cover that could shave 1–2°C off the low. Higher or lower extremes remain low-probability given the absence of strong synoptic forcing or clear, calm nights that would allow greater cooling. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$72,814End Date
Jul 7, 2026Market Opened
Jul 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7 centers on 26–28°C outcomes because numerical weather models show modest spread in overnight radiative cooling under typical summer humidity and light winds. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures aligns with climatological July minima clustering around 27°C, while recent model runs indicate possible weak disturbances or increased cloud cover that could shave 1–2°C off the low. Higher or lower extremes remain low-probability given the absence of strong synoptic forcing or clear, calm nights that would allow greater cooling. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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