Forecast models for Hong Kong on August 16 point to a minimum near 27–28°C amid typical subtropical summer conditions, including high humidity, scattered showers, and light northeasterly winds that limit overnight cooling. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for August–October indicates normal to above-normal temperatures, consistent with the long-term warming trend and current ENSO-neutral setup, keeping extremes unlikely. Short-term guidance shows no approaching tropical systems or clear-sky radiative cooling that would push readings below 26°C or above 29°C. These factors anchor market-implied probabilities around the climatological August average low of roughly 27°C, with traders weighting the most recent model consensus and absence of disruptive developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?
27°C 42%
28°C 27%
26°C 15%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
15%
27°C
42%
28°C
27%
29°C
11%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 42%
28°C 27%
26°C 15%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
$141 Vol.
1%
24°C
$371 Vol.
1%
25°C
$37 Vol.
6%
26°C
$166 Vol.
15%
27°C
$355 Vol.
42%
28°C
$844 Vol.
27%
29°C
$57 Vol.
11%
30°C
$101 Vol.
3%
31°C
$69 Vol.
1%
32°C
$70 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$70 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models for Hong Kong on August 16 point to a minimum near 27–28°C amid typical subtropical summer conditions, including high humidity, scattered showers, and light northeasterly winds that limit overnight cooling. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for August–October indicates normal to above-normal temperatures, consistent with the long-term warming trend and current ENSO-neutral setup, keeping extremes unlikely. Short-term guidance shows no approaching tropical systems or clear-sky radiative cooling that would push readings below 26°C or above 29°C. These factors anchor market-implied probabilities around the climatological August average low of roughly 27°C, with traders weighting the most recent model consensus and absence of disruptive developments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$2,280End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models for Hong Kong on August 16 point to a minimum near 27–28°C amid typical subtropical summer conditions, including high humidity, scattered showers, and light northeasterly winds that limit overnight cooling. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for August–October indicates normal to above-normal temperatures, consistent with the long-term warming trend and current ENSO-neutral setup, keeping extremes unlikely. Short-term guidance shows no approaching tropical systems or clear-sky radiative cooling that would push readings below 26°C or above 29°C. These factors anchor market-implied probabilities around the climatological August average low of roughly 27°C, with traders weighting the most recent model consensus and absence of disruptive developments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,280End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models for Hong Kong on August 16 point to a minimum near 27–28°C amid typical subtropical summer conditions, including high humidity, scattered showers, and light northeasterly winds that limit overnight cooling. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for August–October indicates normal to above-normal temperatures, consistent with the long-term warming trend and current ENSO-neutral setup, keeping extremes unlikely. Short-term guidance shows no approaching tropical systems or clear-sky radiative cooling that would push readings below 26°C or above 29°C. These factors anchor market-implied probabilities around the climatological August average low of roughly 27°C, with traders weighting the most recent model consensus and absence of disruptive developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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