**Microsoft's current ~$3.57 trillion market cap substantially exceeds the combined ~$1.8–2.5 trillion private valuations of Anthropic (~$965B post-May Series H, with secondary indications up to $1.17–1.5T) and OpenAI (~$852B post-March round, confirmed in the August tender).** This gap underpins the 62.5% market-implied probability that Microsoft will hold the higher valuation on December 31, 2026. Rapid revenue acceleration at both AI labs—Anthropic’s run rate surpassing $65 billion by late July and OpenAI’s earlier ~$25 billion trajectory—has driven aggressive private pricing and IPO expectations potentially exceeding $2 trillion for Anthropic. However, these figures reflect forward-looking multiples on speculative growth rather than current scale, while Microsoft’s diversified earnings from Azure, Microsoft 365, and enterprise AI integrations provide more stable, verifiable cash flows and public-market liquidity. Recent catalysts reinforcing the odds include Anthropic’s continued secondary-market gains amid IPO preparations and OpenAI’s flat $852 billion tender, which signals tempered momentum relative to earlier surges. Microsoft’s share price has shown resilience amid broader tech volatility, supported by ongoing AI infrastructure demand. Key upcoming events—potential 2026 IPOs for the labs, quarterly earnings, and any shifts in monetary policy or risk appetite—could narrow or widen the gap, but the current scale differential and public-market discipline favor Microsoft sustaining its lead through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic + OpenAI
38% chance
NEW
NEW
Jan 1, 2027
Anthropic + OpenAI
38% chance
NEW
NEW
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.**Microsoft's current ~$3.57 trillion market cap substantially exceeds the combined ~$1.8–2.5 trillion private valuations of Anthropic (~$965B post-May Series H, with secondary indications up to $1.17–1.5T) and OpenAI (~$852B post-March round, confirmed in the August tender).** This gap underpins the 62.5% market-implied probability that Microsoft will hold the higher valuation on December 31, 2026.
Rapid revenue acceleration at both AI labs—Anthropic’s run rate surpassing $65 billion by late July and OpenAI’s earlier ~$25 billion trajectory—has driven aggressive private pricing and IPO expectations potentially exceeding $2 trillion for Anthropic. However, these figures reflect forward-looking multiples on speculative growth rather than current scale, while Microsoft’s diversified earnings from Azure, Microsoft 365, and enterprise AI integrations provide more stable, verifiable cash flows and public-market liquidity.
Recent catalysts reinforcing the odds include Anthropic’s continued secondary-market gains amid IPO preparations and OpenAI’s flat $852 billion tender, which signals tempered momentum relative to earlier surges. Microsoft’s share price has shown resilience amid broader tech volatility, supported by ongoing AI infrastructure demand. Key upcoming events—potential 2026 IPOs for the labs, quarterly earnings, and any shifts in monetary policy or risk appetite—could narrow or widen the gap, but the current scale differential and public-market discipline favor Microsoft sustaining its lead through year-end.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Market Opened: May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$6,506End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.**Microsoft's current ~$3.57 trillion market cap substantially exceeds the combined ~$1.8–2.5 trillion private valuations of Anthropic (~$965B post-May Series H, with secondary indications up to $1.17–1.5T) and OpenAI (~$852B post-March round, confirmed in the August tender).** This gap underpins the 62.5% market-implied probability that Microsoft will hold the higher valuation on December 31, 2026.
Rapid revenue acceleration at both AI labs—Anthropic’s run rate surpassing $65 billion by late July and OpenAI’s earlier ~$25 billion trajectory—has driven aggressive private pricing and IPO expectations potentially exceeding $2 trillion for Anthropic. However, these figures reflect forward-looking multiples on speculative growth rather than current scale, while Microsoft’s diversified earnings from Azure, Microsoft 365, and enterprise AI integrations provide more stable, verifiable cash flows and public-market liquidity.
Recent catalysts reinforcing the odds include Anthropic’s continued secondary-market gains amid IPO preparations and OpenAI’s flat $852 billion tender, which signals tempered momentum relative to earlier surges. Microsoft’s share price has shown resilience amid broader tech volatility, supported by ongoing AI infrastructure demand. Key upcoming events—potential 2026 IPOs for the labs, quarterly earnings, and any shifts in monetary policy or risk appetite—could narrow or widen the gap, but the current scale differential and public-market discipline favor Microsoft sustaining its lead through year-end.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.copilot.markets/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Volume
$6,506End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Microsoft's current ~$3.57 trillion market cap substantially exceeds the combined ~$1.8–2.5 trillion private valuations of Anthropic (~$965B post-May Series H, with secondary indications up to $1.17–1.5T) and OpenAI (~$852B post-March round, confirmed in the August tender).** This gap underpins the 62.5% market-implied probability that Microsoft will hold the higher valuation on December 31, 2026. Rapid revenue acceleration at both AI labs—Anthropic’s run rate surpassing $65 billion by late July and OpenAI’s earlier ~$25 billion trajectory—has driven aggressive private pricing and IPO expectations potentially exceeding $2 trillion for Anthropic. However, these figures reflect forward-looking multiples on speculative growth rather than current scale, while Microsoft’s diversified earnings from Azure, Microsoft 365, and enterprise AI integrations provide more stable, verifiable cash flows and public-market liquidity. Recent catalysts reinforcing the odds include Anthropic’s continued secondary-market gains amid IPO preparations and OpenAI’s flat $852 billion tender, which signals tempered momentum relative to earlier surges. Microsoft’s share price has shown resilience amid broader tech volatility, supported by ongoing AI infrastructure demand. Key upcoming events—potential 2026 IPOs for the labs, quarterly earnings, and any shifts in monetary policy or risk appetite—could narrow or widen the gap, but the current scale differential and public-market discipline favor Microsoft sustaining its lead through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions