**Trader consensus on "No" at 96.4% reflects Brazil's unbroken historical record: the Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite repeated petitions, especially during periods of intense polarization.** The process demands a high procedural bar, typically involving Senate approval by a two-thirds supermajority after review by the Prosecutor General or designated committee, which has consistently shielded the court. Recent developments, including a 2026 congressional CPI report recommending proceedings against justices such as Gilmar Mendes, Alexandre de Moraes, and Dias Toffoli over alleged procedural issues, and STF efforts to narrow standing for complaints, have not altered this pattern. Institutional protections, cross-party legislative caution, and the absence of sufficient votes sustain the current pricing. A narrow window for change before 2027 would require a decisive post-election Senate shift enabling supermajority consensus on specific charges, though such an outcome remains structurally difficult.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$82,631 Vol.
$82,631 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$82,631 Vol.
$82,631 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on "No" at 96.4% reflects Brazil's unbroken historical record: the Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite repeated petitions, especially during periods of intense polarization.** The process demands a high procedural bar, typically involving Senate approval by a two-thirds supermajority after review by the Prosecutor General or designated committee, which has consistently shielded the court. Recent developments, including a 2026 congressional CPI report recommending proceedings against justices such as Gilmar Mendes, Alexandre de Moraes, and Dias Toffoli over alleged procedural issues, and STF efforts to narrow standing for complaints, have not altered this pattern. Institutional protections, cross-party legislative caution, and the absence of sufficient votes sustain the current pricing. A narrow window for change before 2027 would require a decisive post-election Senate shift enabling supermajority consensus on specific charges, though such an outcome remains structurally difficult.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$82,631End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on "No" at 96.4% reflects Brazil's unbroken historical record: the Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite repeated petitions, especially during periods of intense polarization.** The process demands a high procedural bar, typically involving Senate approval by a two-thirds supermajority after review by the Prosecutor General or designated committee, which has consistently shielded the court. Recent developments, including a 2026 congressional CPI report recommending proceedings against justices such as Gilmar Mendes, Alexandre de Moraes, and Dias Toffoli over alleged procedural issues, and STF efforts to narrow standing for complaints, have not altered this pattern. Institutional protections, cross-party legislative caution, and the absence of sufficient votes sustain the current pricing. A narrow window for change before 2027 would require a decisive post-election Senate shift enabling supermajority consensus on specific charges, though such an outcome remains structurally difficult.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$82,631End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on "No" at 96.4% reflects Brazil's unbroken historical record: the Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite repeated petitions, especially during periods of intense polarization.** The process demands a high procedural bar, typically involving Senate approval by a two-thirds supermajority after review by the Prosecutor General or designated committee, which has consistently shielded the court. Recent developments, including a 2026 congressional CPI report recommending proceedings against justices such as Gilmar Mendes, Alexandre de Moraes, and Dias Toffoli over alleged procedural issues, and STF efforts to narrow standing for complaints, have not altered this pattern. Institutional protections, cross-party legislative caution, and the absence of sufficient votes sustain the current pricing. A narrow window for change before 2027 would require a decisive post-election Senate shift enabling supermajority consensus on specific charges, though such an outcome remains structurally difficult.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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