Brazilian Senate rules and constitutional thresholds create formidable barriers to removing any STF justice, with impeachment requiring a two-thirds vote of 54 senators after the chamber president advances a request. Dozens of pending petitions, including over 50 against Alexandre de Moraes tied to recent investigations and internal court disputes, have remained stalled under Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, consistent with decades of non-advancement and no successful removals in STF history. Lula-aligned majorities and recent court rulings tightening filing procedures further limit momentum ahead of the October 2026 Senate elections. Traders assign the 95.4% “No” probability because these institutional and political factors outweigh public pressure or reform proposals. A post-election opposition supermajority or leadership change could still open proceedings before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$90,222 Vol.
$90,222 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$90,222 Vol.
$90,222 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazilian Senate rules and constitutional thresholds create formidable barriers to removing any STF justice, with impeachment requiring a two-thirds vote of 54 senators after the chamber president advances a request. Dozens of pending petitions, including over 50 against Alexandre de Moraes tied to recent investigations and internal court disputes, have remained stalled under Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, consistent with decades of non-advancement and no successful removals in STF history. Lula-aligned majorities and recent court rulings tightening filing procedures further limit momentum ahead of the October 2026 Senate elections. Traders assign the 95.4% “No” probability because these institutional and political factors outweigh public pressure or reform proposals. A post-election opposition supermajority or leadership change could still open proceedings before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$90,222End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazilian Senate rules and constitutional thresholds create formidable barriers to removing any STF justice, with impeachment requiring a two-thirds vote of 54 senators after the chamber president advances a request. Dozens of pending petitions, including over 50 against Alexandre de Moraes tied to recent investigations and internal court disputes, have remained stalled under Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, consistent with decades of non-advancement and no successful removals in STF history. Lula-aligned majorities and recent court rulings tightening filing procedures further limit momentum ahead of the October 2026 Senate elections. Traders assign the 95.4% “No” probability because these institutional and political factors outweigh public pressure or reform proposals. A post-election opposition supermajority or leadership change could still open proceedings before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$90,222End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazilian Senate rules and constitutional thresholds create formidable barriers to removing any STF justice, with impeachment requiring a two-thirds vote of 54 senators after the chamber president advances a request. Dozens of pending petitions, including over 50 against Alexandre de Moraes tied to recent investigations and internal court disputes, have remained stalled under Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, consistent with decades of non-advancement and no successful removals in STF history. Lula-aligned majorities and recent court rulings tightening filing procedures further limit momentum ahead of the October 2026 Senate elections. Traders assign the 95.4% “No” probability because these institutional and political factors outweigh public pressure or reform proposals. A post-election opposition supermajority or leadership change could still open proceedings before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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