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Economy·CPI

August Inflation US - Annual

icon for August Inflation US - Annual
Economy·CPI

August Inflation US - Annual

Sep 11

Sep 11

3.4% 46%

3.3% 27%

3.5% 11%

3.6% 9%

Polymarket
NEW

3.4% 46%

3.3% 27%

3.5% 11%

3.6% 9%

Polymarket
NEW

≤2.9%

$72 Vol.

3%

3.0%

$72 Vol.

4%

3.1%

$72 Vol.

3%

3.2%

$72 Vol.

4%

3.3%

$202 Vol.

27%

3.4%

$654 Vol.

46%

3.5%

$131 Vol.

11%

3.6%

$72 Vol.

9%

3.7%

$171 Vol.

4%

3.8%

$192 Vol.

5%

3.9%

$192 Vol.

3%

≥4.0%

$64 Vol.

2%

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Trader sentiment in the August 2026 U.S. CPI year-over-year market centers on the 3.3–3.4% outcomes, which together command over 70% implied probability following the July print that matched the 3.4% consensus at 3.4% YoY.** The July Bureau of Labor Statistics release showed headline CPI rising just 0.1% month-over-month, with the annual rate easing from June’s 3.5% amid softer gasoline prices and moderating shelter costs, while core CPI held at 2.5% YoY. This latest data reinforced the recent disinflation trend and anchored expectations for August, with market-implied odds reflecting continued modest cooling before the September 11 release. Broader context includes stable consumer inflation expectations near 3.6% and ongoing tariff pass-through effects that remain a longer-term upside risk but have yet to disrupt the near-term trajectory. The distribution around 3.3–3.4% illustrates how recent official figures and nowcasts have narrowed the range of probable outcomes ahead of the next print.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$1,963
End Date
Sep 11, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Trader sentiment in the August 2026 U.S. CPI year-over-year market centers on the 3.3–3.4% outcomes, which together command over 70% implied probability following the July print that matched the 3.4% consensus at 3.4% YoY.** The July Bureau of Labor Statistics release showed headline CPI rising just 0.1% month-over-month, with the annual rate easing from June’s 3.5% amid softer gasoline prices and moderating shelter costs, while core CPI held at 2.5% YoY. This latest data reinforced the recent disinflation trend and anchored expectations for August, with market-implied odds reflecting continued modest cooling before the September 11 release. Broader context includes stable consumer inflation expectations near 3.6% and ongoing tariff pass-through effects that remain a longer-term upside risk but have yet to disrupt the near-term trajectory. The distribution around 3.3–3.4% illustrates how recent official figures and nowcasts have narrowed the range of probable outcomes ahead of the next print.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$1,963
End Date
Sep 11, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"August Inflation US - Annual" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3.4%" at 46%, followed by "3.3%" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"August Inflation US - Annual" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "August Inflation US - Annual," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "August Inflation US - Annual" is "3.4%" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.3%" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "August Inflation US - Annual" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.