Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Die Linke hovering at or just below 20 percent, with the latest INSA survey placing the party at 19 percent and the dawum trend at 19.8 percent. Earlier Civey results reached 21 percent, but subsequent readings have eased, reflecting a tight race with the CDU near 19–20 percent and AfD and Greens also in contention. Traders appear to weigh the party’s modest late-campaign gains against historical volatility in Berlin voting and the risk that undecided voters or turnout shifts could keep Linke under the threshold. With roughly one month until election day, these narrow polling margins underpin the current 58.5 percent implied probability on the “Under” outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
42% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Over
42% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Die Linke hovering at or just below 20 percent, with the latest INSA survey placing the party at 19 percent and the dawum trend at 19.8 percent. Earlier Civey results reached 21 percent, but subsequent readings have eased, reflecting a tight race with the CDU near 19–20 percent and AfD and Greens also in contention. Traders appear to weigh the party’s modest late-campaign gains against historical volatility in Berlin voting and the risk that undecided voters or turnout shifts could keep Linke under the threshold. With roughly one month until election day, these narrow polling margins underpin the current 58.5 percent implied probability on the “Under” outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Volume
$1,357End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Die Linke hovering at or just below 20 percent, with the latest INSA survey placing the party at 19 percent and the dawum trend at 19.8 percent. Earlier Civey results reached 21 percent, but subsequent readings have eased, reflecting a tight race with the CDU near 19–20 percent and AfD and Greens also in contention. Traders appear to weigh the party’s modest late-campaign gains against historical volatility in Berlin voting and the risk that undecided voters or turnout shifts could keep Linke under the threshold. With roughly one month until election day, these narrow polling margins underpin the current 58.5 percent implied probability on the “Under” outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$1,357End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Die Linke hovering at or just below 20 percent, with the latest INSA survey placing the party at 19 percent and the dawum trend at 19.8 percent. Earlier Civey results reached 21 percent, but subsequent readings have eased, reflecting a tight race with the CDU near 19–20 percent and AfD and Greens also in contention. Traders appear to weigh the party’s modest late-campaign gains against historical volatility in Berlin voting and the risk that undecided voters or turnout shifts could keep Linke under the threshold. With roughly one month until election day, these narrow polling margins underpin the current 58.5 percent implied probability on the “Under” outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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