Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus for a 10-15% popular vote margin victory in the April 19 snap parliamentary election, reflecting recent polls like Market Links (April 7-14) showing PB at 37% versus GERB-SDS's 21% (16-point lead) and CAM's April 14 survey at 32.1% to 19.4% (12.7 points). Radev's December 2025 resignation to head the new anti-corruption alliance has solidified PB's lead amid Bulgaria's eighth election since 2021, appealing to disillusioned rural and undecided voters in a fragmented field. Under proportional representation for the 240-seat National Assembly, PB eyes 90-109 seats per projections but likely requires coalition talks, with turnout and late undecideds as key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPB 10-15% 45%
PB 15-20% 26%
PB 5-10% 24%
PB 20%+ 8.1%
$47,201 Vol.
$47,201 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
8%
PB 15-20%
26%
PB 10-15%
45%
PB 5-10%
24%
PB <5%
2%
GERB-SDS Victory
<1%
Other
<1%
PB 10-15% 45%
PB 15-20% 26%
PB 5-10% 24%
PB 20%+ 8.1%
$47,201 Vol.
$47,201 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
$3,764 Vol.
8%
PB 15-20%
$15,771 Vol.
26%
PB 10-15%
$14,680 Vol.
45%
PB 5-10%
$7,424 Vol.
24%
PB <5%
$2,578 Vol.
2%
GERB-SDS Victory
$1,710 Vol.
<1%
Other
$1,274 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus for a 10-15% popular vote margin victory in the April 19 snap parliamentary election, reflecting recent polls like Market Links (April 7-14) showing PB at 37% versus GERB-SDS's 21% (16-point lead) and CAM's April 14 survey at 32.1% to 19.4% (12.7 points). Radev's December 2025 resignation to head the new anti-corruption alliance has solidified PB's lead amid Bulgaria's eighth election since 2021, appealing to disillusioned rural and undecided voters in a fragmented field. Under proportional representation for the 240-seat National Assembly, PB eyes 90-109 seats per projections but likely requires coalition talks, with turnout and late undecideds as key variables.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Volume
$47,201End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus for a 10-15% popular vote margin victory in the April 19 snap parliamentary election, reflecting recent polls like Market Links (April 7-14) showing PB at 37% versus GERB-SDS's 21% (16-point lead) and CAM's April 14 survey at 32.1% to 19.4% (12.7 points). Radev's December 2025 resignation to head the new anti-corruption alliance has solidified PB's lead amid Bulgaria's eighth election since 2021, appealing to disillusioned rural and undecided voters in a fragmented field. Under proportional representation for the 240-seat National Assembly, PB eyes 90-109 seats per projections but likely requires coalition talks, with turnout and late undecideds as key variables.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volume
$47,201End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus for a 10-15% popular vote margin victory in the April 19 snap parliamentary election, reflecting recent polls like Market Links (April 7-14) showing PB at 37% versus GERB-SDS's 21% (16-point lead) and CAM's April 14 survey at 32.1% to 19.4% (12.7 points). Radev's December 2025 resignation to head the new anti-corruption alliance has solidified PB's lead amid Bulgaria's eighth election since 2021, appealing to disillusioned rural and undecided voters in a fragmented field. Under proportional representation for the 240-seat National Assembly, PB eyes 90-109 seats per projections but likely requires coalition talks, with turnout and late undecideds as key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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