De la Espriella secured the largest share of votes in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, finishing ahead of Iván Cepeda Castro of the ruling Historic Pact and conservative Paloma Valencia. Official certification on June 4 confirmed de la Espriella at roughly 43.7 percent to Cepeda’s 40.9 percent, with Valencia at 6.9 percent, producing a margin that aligns with the market’s near-certain pricing of a de la Espriella win. The outcome exceeded pre-election polling expectations for the right-wing outsider, who drew support from evangelical voters and social-media outreach while traditional conservative backing consolidated behind him after Valencia’s underperformance. Cepeda accepted the results on June 7 following a brief delay. A runoff remains scheduled for June 21, yet any late reversal of first-round tallies would require successful legal challenges or procedural findings that have not materialized in official tallies or observer reports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedColombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
de la Espriella Win 100.0%
Valencia Win 1.1%
Cepeda Castro 20%+ <1%
Cepeda Castro 15-20% <1%
$148,309 Vol.
$148,309 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
No
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
No
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
No
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
No
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
No
de la Espriella Win
Yes
Valencia Win
No
Other
No
de la Espriella Win 100.0%
Valencia Win 1.1%
Cepeda Castro 20%+ <1%
Cepeda Castro 15-20% <1%
$148,309 Vol.
$148,309 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$27,472 Vol.
No
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$12,496 Vol.
No
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$18,674 Vol.
No
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$13,574 Vol.
No
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$21,139 Vol.
No
de la Espriella Win
$36,649 Vol.
Yes
Valencia Win
$9,079 Vol.
No
Other
$9,226 Vol.
No
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.De la Espriella secured the largest share of votes in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, finishing ahead of Iván Cepeda Castro of the ruling Historic Pact and conservative Paloma Valencia. Official certification on June 4 confirmed de la Espriella at roughly 43.7 percent to Cepeda’s 40.9 percent, with Valencia at 6.9 percent, producing a margin that aligns with the market’s near-certain pricing of a de la Espriella win. The outcome exceeded pre-election polling expectations for the right-wing outsider, who drew support from evangelical voters and social-media outreach while traditional conservative backing consolidated behind him after Valencia’s underperformance. Cepeda accepted the results on June 7 following a brief delay. A runoff remains scheduled for June 21, yet any late reversal of first-round tallies would require successful legal challenges or procedural findings that have not materialized in official tallies or observer reports.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$148,309End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.De la Espriella secured the largest share of votes in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, finishing ahead of Iván Cepeda Castro of the ruling Historic Pact and conservative Paloma Valencia. Official certification on June 4 confirmed de la Espriella at roughly 43.7 percent to Cepeda’s 40.9 percent, with Valencia at 6.9 percent, producing a margin that aligns with the market’s near-certain pricing of a de la Espriella win. The outcome exceeded pre-election polling expectations for the right-wing outsider, who drew support from evangelical voters and social-media outreach while traditional conservative backing consolidated behind him after Valencia’s underperformance. Cepeda accepted the results on June 7 following a brief delay. A runoff remains scheduled for June 21, yet any late reversal of first-round tallies would require successful legal challenges or procedural findings that have not materialized in official tallies or observer reports.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$148,309End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
De la Espriella secured the largest share of votes in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, finishing ahead of Iván Cepeda Castro of the ruling Historic Pact and conservative Paloma Valencia. Official certification on June 4 confirmed de la Espriella at roughly 43.7 percent to Cepeda’s 40.9 percent, with Valencia at 6.9 percent, producing a margin that aligns with the market’s near-certain pricing of a de la Espriella win. The outcome exceeded pre-election polling expectations for the right-wing outsider, who drew support from evangelical voters and social-media outreach while traditional conservative backing consolidated behind him after Valencia’s underperformance. Cepeda accepted the results on June 7 following a brief delay. A runoff remains scheduled for June 21, yet any late reversal of first-round tallies would require successful legal challenges or procedural findings that have not materialized in official tallies or observer reports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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