Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 89.9% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing with the SEC as of mid-April and the typical 3-6 month timeline from filing to listing, leaving insufficient runway. The data and AI platform, fresh off a $5 billion funding round in February at a $134 billion private valuation with $5.4 billion ARR growing 65% year-over-year, signals ample private capital to fuel expansion in its Lakehouse architecture and MosaicML integrations without rushing public markets amid volatile tech IPO conditions. Low odds on valuation buckets like 125-150B (4.3%) reflect this delay, with traders eyeing potential Q3 S-1 or later 2026 debut amid competitive pressures from Snowflake and AI hyperscalers; watch CEO statements or regulatory filings for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 86.9%
125–150B 4.3%
250B+ 3.5%
<100B 1.1%
$396,038 Vol.
$396,038 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
1%
100–125B
1%
125–150B
4%
150–175B
<1%
175–200B
<1%
200–250B
<1%
250B+
3%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
90%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 86.9%
125–150B 4.3%
250B+ 3.5%
<100B 1.1%
$396,038 Vol.
$396,038 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
$32,733 Vol.
1%
100–125B
$60,773 Vol.
1%
125–150B
$25,517 Vol.
4%
150–175B
$59,232 Vol.
<1%
175–200B
$57,484 Vol.
<1%
200–250B
$19,528 Vol.
<1%
250B+
$125,552 Vol.
3%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$15,217 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 89.9% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing with the SEC as of mid-April and the typical 3-6 month timeline from filing to listing, leaving insufficient runway. The data and AI platform, fresh off a $5 billion funding round in February at a $134 billion private valuation with $5.4 billion ARR growing 65% year-over-year, signals ample private capital to fuel expansion in its Lakehouse architecture and MosaicML integrations without rushing public markets amid volatile tech IPO conditions. Low odds on valuation buckets like 125-150B (4.3%) reflect this delay, with traders eyeing potential Q3 S-1 or later 2026 debut amid competitive pressures from Snowflake and AI hyperscalers; watch CEO statements or regulatory filings for shifts.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$396,038End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 89.9% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing with the SEC as of mid-April and the typical 3-6 month timeline from filing to listing, leaving insufficient runway. The data and AI platform, fresh off a $5 billion funding round in February at a $134 billion private valuation with $5.4 billion ARR growing 65% year-over-year, signals ample private capital to fuel expansion in its Lakehouse architecture and MosaicML integrations without rushing public markets amid volatile tech IPO conditions. Low odds on valuation buckets like 125-150B (4.3%) reflect this delay, with traders eyeing potential Q3 S-1 or later 2026 debut amid competitive pressures from Snowflake and AI hyperscalers; watch CEO statements or regulatory filings for shifts.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$396,038End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 89.9% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing with the SEC as of mid-April and the typical 3-6 month timeline from filing to listing, leaving insufficient runway. The data and AI platform, fresh off a $5 billion funding round in February at a $134 billion private valuation with $5.4 billion ARR growing 65% year-over-year, signals ample private capital to fuel expansion in its Lakehouse architecture and MosaicML integrations without rushing public markets amid volatile tech IPO conditions. Low odds on valuation buckets like 125-150B (4.3%) reflect this delay, with traders eyeing potential Q3 S-1 or later 2026 debut amid competitive pressures from Snowflake and AI hyperscalers; watch CEO statements or regulatory filings for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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