Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 89.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of an S-1 filing or roadshow announcement despite strong fundamentals. The data lakehouse leader closed a $5 billion funding round in February 2026 at a $134 billion private valuation—aligning with the modest 4.2% odds on a 125–150B market cap outcome—and raised $1.8 billion in debt in January to fund AI-driven growth toward $5.4 billion ARR at 65% YoY. CEO Ali Ghodsi recently declined to rule out a 2026 public debut amid a frothy IPO market, but typical timelines for SEC review and pricing make a H1 close unlikely. Traders eye Q2 S-1 filings as the key catalyst to shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 86.9%
125–150B 4.2%
250B+ 4.0%
100–125B <1%
$396,034 Vol.
$396,034 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
1%
100–125B
1%
125–150B
4%
150–175B
<1%
175–200B
<1%
200–250B
<1%
250B+
4%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
90%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 86.9%
125–150B 4.2%
250B+ 4.0%
100–125B <1%
$396,034 Vol.
$396,034 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
$32,733 Vol.
1%
100–125B
$60,770 Vol.
1%
125–150B
$25,517 Vol.
4%
150–175B
$59,232 Vol.
<1%
175–200B
$57,484 Vol.
<1%
200–250B
$19,528 Vol.
<1%
250B+
$125,551 Vol.
4%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$15,217 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 89.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of an S-1 filing or roadshow announcement despite strong fundamentals. The data lakehouse leader closed a $5 billion funding round in February 2026 at a $134 billion private valuation—aligning with the modest 4.2% odds on a 125–150B market cap outcome—and raised $1.8 billion in debt in January to fund AI-driven growth toward $5.4 billion ARR at 65% YoY. CEO Ali Ghodsi recently declined to rule out a 2026 public debut amid a frothy IPO market, but typical timelines for SEC review and pricing make a H1 close unlikely. Traders eye Q2 S-1 filings as the key catalyst to shift sentiment.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$396,034End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 89.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of an S-1 filing or roadshow announcement despite strong fundamentals. The data lakehouse leader closed a $5 billion funding round in February 2026 at a $134 billion private valuation—aligning with the modest 4.2% odds on a 125–150B market cap outcome—and raised $1.8 billion in debt in January to fund AI-driven growth toward $5.4 billion ARR at 65% YoY. CEO Ali Ghodsi recently declined to rule out a 2026 public debut amid a frothy IPO market, but typical timelines for SEC review and pricing make a H1 close unlikely. Traders eye Q2 S-1 filings as the key catalyst to shift sentiment.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$396,034End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 89.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of an S-1 filing or roadshow announcement despite strong fundamentals. The data lakehouse leader closed a $5 billion funding round in February 2026 at a $134 billion private valuation—aligning with the modest 4.2% odds on a 125–150B market cap outcome—and raised $1.8 billion in debt in January to fund AI-driven growth toward $5.4 billion ARR at 65% YoY. CEO Ali Ghodsi recently declined to rule out a 2026 public debut amid a frothy IPO market, but typical timelines for SEC review and pricing make a H1 close unlikely. Traders eye Q2 S-1 filings as the key catalyst to shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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