Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, alongside a stable labor market at 4.1% unemployment, anchors trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate range of 3.50–3.75% under Chair Kevin Warsh reflects a data-dependent stance without forward guidance, as recent energy price pressures and resilient growth have shifted the balance toward hawkish risks. Market-implied odds of 70.5% for no change capture consensus that incoming August CPI and employment data, due before the September meeting, are unlikely to trigger immediate action, while the 26.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike prices in potential further tightening if inflation readings remain elevated. Low odds on cuts underscore limited evidence of labor-market cooling that would justify easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$1,018,772 Vol.
$1,018,772 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
71%
25 bps increase
27%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$1,018,772 Vol.
$1,018,772 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$174,005 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$359,820 Vol.
3%
No change
$187,016 Vol.
71%
25 bps increase
$178,671 Vol.
27%
50+ bps increase
$119,260 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, alongside a stable labor market at 4.1% unemployment, anchors trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate range of 3.50–3.75% under Chair Kevin Warsh reflects a data-dependent stance without forward guidance, as recent energy price pressures and resilient growth have shifted the balance toward hawkish risks. Market-implied odds of 70.5% for no change capture consensus that incoming August CPI and employment data, due before the September meeting, are unlikely to trigger immediate action, while the 26.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike prices in potential further tightening if inflation readings remain elevated. Low odds on cuts underscore limited evidence of labor-market cooling that would justify easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,018,772End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, alongside a stable labor market at 4.1% unemployment, anchors trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate range of 3.50–3.75% under Chair Kevin Warsh reflects a data-dependent stance without forward guidance, as recent energy price pressures and resilient growth have shifted the balance toward hawkish risks. Market-implied odds of 70.5% for no change capture consensus that incoming August CPI and employment data, due before the September meeting, are unlikely to trigger immediate action, while the 26.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike prices in potential further tightening if inflation readings remain elevated. Low odds on cuts underscore limited evidence of labor-market cooling that would justify easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,018,772End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, alongside a stable labor market at 4.1% unemployment, anchors trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate range of 3.50–3.75% under Chair Kevin Warsh reflects a data-dependent stance without forward guidance, as recent energy price pressures and resilient growth have shifted the balance toward hawkish risks. Market-implied odds of 70.5% for no change capture consensus that incoming August CPI and employment data, due before the September meeting, are unlikely to trigger immediate action, while the 26.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike prices in potential further tightening if inflation readings remain elevated. Low odds on cuts underscore limited evidence of labor-market cooling that would justify easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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