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Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?

Market icon

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?

Mar 27

Apr 3

Mar 27

Apr 3

80–85 84%

90–95 13%

95+ 7.8%

85–90 5.5%

Polymarket
NEW

80–85 84%

90–95 13%

95+ 7.8%

85–90 5.5%

Polymarket
NEW

<75

$179 Vol.

2%

75–80

$171 Vol.

43%

80–85

$356 Vol.

84%

85–90

$158 Vol.

21%

90–95

$3,012 Vol.

9%

95+

$139 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.The latest CDC FluView report for Week 11 (ending March 21, 2026) shows a preliminary FluSurv-NET cumulative influenza hospitalization rate of 81.6 per 100,000 population—third highest since 2010-2011—driving trader consensus toward the 80–85 bin at 67.5% implied probability, as declining weekly admissions (1.1 per 100,000) and test positivity (11.5%) signal a waning 2025-2026 season dominated by A(H3N2). Forecasts from FluSight predict further national decreases in hospital admissions for Week 12 (ending March 28), likely adding only ~1 per 100,000 to the cumulative total amid falling outpatient respiratory visits below baseline. High pediatric rates (second highest on record) and preliminary data subject to revision underpin modest support for 85–90 (24.8%), while lower bins reflect expectations of no significant rebound. The next FluView update, due imminently, could refine these market-implied odds.

The latest CDC FluView report for Week 11 (ending March 21, 2026) shows a preliminary FluSurv-NET cumulative influenza hospitalization rate of 81.6 per 100,000 population—third highest since 2010-2011—driving trader consensus toward the 80–85 bin at 67.5% implied probability, as declining weekly admissions (1.1 per 100,000) and test positivity (11.5%) signal a waning 2025-2026 season dominated by A(H3N2). Forecasts from FluSight predict further national decreases in hospital admissions for Week 12 (ending March 28), likely adding only ~1 per 100,000 to the cumulative total amid falling outpatient respiratory visits below baseline. High pediatric rates (second highest on record) and preliminary data subject to revision underpin modest support for 85–90 (24.8%), while lower bins reflect expectations of no significant rebound. The next FluView update, due imminently, could refine these market-implied odds.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.The latest CDC FluView report for Week 11 (ending March 21, 2026) shows a preliminary FluSurv-NET cumulative influenza hospitalization rate of 81.6 per 100,000 population—third highest since 2010-2011—driving trader consensus toward the 80–85 bin at 67.5% implied probability, as declining weekly admissions (1.1 per 100,000) and test positivity (11.5%) signal a waning 2025-2026 season dominated by A(H3N2). Forecasts from FluSight predict further national decreases in hospital admissions for Week 12 (ending March 28), likely adding only ~1 per 100,000 to the cumulative total amid falling outpatient respiratory visits below baseline. High pediatric rates (second highest on record) and preliminary data subject to revision underpin modest support for 85–90 (24.8%), while lower bins reflect expectations of no significant rebound. The next FluView update, due imminently, could refine these market-implied odds.

The latest CDC FluView report for Week 11 (ending March 21, 2026) shows a preliminary FluSurv-NET cumulative influenza hospitalization rate of 81.6 per 100,000 population—third highest since 2010-2011—driving trader consensus toward the 80–85 bin at 67.5% implied probability, as declining weekly admissions (1.1 per 100,000) and test positivity (11.5%) signal a waning 2025-2026 season dominated by A(H3N2). Forecasts from FluSight predict further national decreases in hospital admissions for Week 12 (ending March 28), likely adding only ~1 per 100,000 to the cumulative total amid falling outpatient respiratory visits below baseline. High pediatric rates (second highest on record) and preliminary data subject to revision underpin modest support for 85–90 (24.8%), while lower bins reflect expectations of no significant rebound. The next FluView update, due imminently, could refine these market-implied odds.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "80–85" at 84%, followed by "75–80" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?" is "80–85" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "75–80" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.