Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 dataset reports April 2026 global surface air temperatures at 1.43°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels—joint third-warmest April on record—translating to approximately 1.17°C above the 1951-1980 baseline used in NASA's GISS dataset that resolves this market, driving trader consensus to 97.3% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin amid second-highest sea surface temperatures outside polar regions and persistent marine heatwaves. Elevated equatorial Pacific warmth from fading El Niño conditions further supported this positioning, consistent with multi-model consensus and historical dataset alignments (±0.05°C typical variance). Realistic challenges include minor GISS revisions from late data or aerosol cooling effects, with NASA's official April value expected imminently to confirm or adjust trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 97.3%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$354,661 Vol.
$354,661 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
97%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC 97.3%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$354,661 Vol.
$354,661 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$60,357 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$62,612 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47,991 Vol.
97%
1.20–1.24ºC
$73,072 Vol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$62,662 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$47,967 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 dataset reports April 2026 global surface air temperatures at 1.43°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels—joint third-warmest April on record—translating to approximately 1.17°C above the 1951-1980 baseline used in NASA's GISS dataset that resolves this market, driving trader consensus to 97.3% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin amid second-highest sea surface temperatures outside polar regions and persistent marine heatwaves. Elevated equatorial Pacific warmth from fading El Niño conditions further supported this positioning, consistent with multi-model consensus and historical dataset alignments (±0.05°C typical variance). Realistic challenges include minor GISS revisions from late data or aerosol cooling effects, with NASA's official April value expected imminently to confirm or adjust trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$354,661End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 dataset reports April 2026 global surface air temperatures at 1.43°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels—joint third-warmest April on record—translating to approximately 1.17°C above the 1951-1980 baseline used in NASA's GISS dataset that resolves this market, driving trader consensus to 97.3% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin amid second-highest sea surface temperatures outside polar regions and persistent marine heatwaves. Elevated equatorial Pacific warmth from fading El Niño conditions further supported this positioning, consistent with multi-model consensus and historical dataset alignments (±0.05°C typical variance). Realistic challenges include minor GISS revisions from late data or aerosol cooling effects, with NASA's official April value expected imminently to confirm or adjust trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$354,661End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 dataset reports April 2026 global surface air temperatures at 1.43°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels—joint third-warmest April on record—translating to approximately 1.17°C above the 1951-1980 baseline used in NASA's GISS dataset that resolves this market, driving trader consensus to 97.3% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin amid second-highest sea surface temperatures outside polar regions and persistent marine heatwaves. Elevated equatorial Pacific warmth from fading El Niño conditions further supported this positioning, consistent with multi-model consensus and historical dataset alignments (±0.05°C typical variance). Realistic challenges include minor GISS revisions from late data or aerosol cooling effects, with NASA's official April value expected imminently to confirm or adjust trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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