Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature reaching exactly 27°C on May 10, driven by converged forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like those aggregated on AccuWeather, projecting a daily maximum of 81°F (27°C) under persistent cloudy conditions. Current observations confirm morning temperatures around 77°F (25°C) with thick cloud cover limiting solar insolation and convective heating, aligning precisely with ensemble model outputs amid stable high-pressure influence and moderate humidity typical for early May in the Pearl River Delta. Historical May highs average 28°C, but today's overcast skies suppress peaks. Realistic challenges include sudden clearing for late-afternoon heating to 28°C or station-specific measurement variations, though peak solar hours have passed with no such shifts observed; final official data from Shenzhen's meteorological stations expected by evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 10?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 10?
27°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$83,753 Vol.
$83,753 Vol.
May 10, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$83,753 Vol.
$83,753 Vol.
May 10, 2026
20°C or below
$590 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,039 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,074 Vol.
No
23°C
$4,310 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,709 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,840 Vol.
No
26°C
$33,723 Vol.
No
27°C
$8,386 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$6,340 Vol.
No
29°C
$8,813 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$8,931 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature reaching exactly 27°C on May 10, driven by converged forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like those aggregated on AccuWeather, projecting a daily maximum of 81°F (27°C) under persistent cloudy conditions. Current observations confirm morning temperatures around 77°F (25°C) with thick cloud cover limiting solar insolation and convective heating, aligning precisely with ensemble model outputs amid stable high-pressure influence and moderate humidity typical for early May in the Pearl River Delta. Historical May highs average 28°C, but today's overcast skies suppress peaks. Realistic challenges include sudden clearing for late-afternoon heating to 28°C or station-specific measurement variations, though peak solar hours have passed with no such shifts observed; final official data from Shenzhen's meteorological stations expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$83,753End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature reaching exactly 27°C on May 10, driven by converged forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like those aggregated on AccuWeather, projecting a daily maximum of 81°F (27°C) under persistent cloudy conditions. Current observations confirm morning temperatures around 77°F (25°C) with thick cloud cover limiting solar insolation and convective heating, aligning precisely with ensemble model outputs amid stable high-pressure influence and moderate humidity typical for early May in the Pearl River Delta. Historical May highs average 28°C, but today's overcast skies suppress peaks. Realistic challenges include sudden clearing for late-afternoon heating to 28°C or station-specific measurement variations, though peak solar hours have passed with no such shifts observed; final official data from Shenzhen's meteorological stations expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$83,753End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature reaching exactly 27°C on May 10, driven by converged forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like those aggregated on AccuWeather, projecting a daily maximum of 81°F (27°C) under persistent cloudy conditions. Current observations confirm morning temperatures around 77°F (25°C) with thick cloud cover limiting solar insolation and convective heating, aligning precisely with ensemble model outputs amid stable high-pressure influence and moderate humidity typical for early May in the Pearl River Delta. Historical May highs average 28°C, but today's overcast skies suppress peaks. Realistic challenges include sudden clearing for late-afternoon heating to 28°C or station-specific measurement variations, though peak solar hours have passed with no such shifts observed; final official data from Shenzhen's meteorological stations expected by evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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