NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information and Copernicus Climate Change Service released preliminary data confirming April 2026 as the third-warmest April globally on record, with surface air temperature anomalies tying prior peaks like 2020 and 2016 at approximately 0.52°C above the 1991–2020 baseline in Copernicus datasets and aligning in NOAA's global land-ocean index. This positioning, driven by persistent anthropogenic warming amid a transitioning ENSO from El Niño, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on "3rd hottest," reflecting trader consensus on verified observational records spanning 145 years. Realistic challenges include rare post-preliminary revisions from data quality checks or Arctic/Antarctic measurement updates, though rankings seldom shift after initial agency briefings expected this week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
3rd hottest 100.0%
1st hottest <1%
2nd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$96,545 Vol.
$96,545 Vol.
May 10, 2026
1st hottest
No
2nd hottest
No
3rd hottest
Yes
4th or lower
No
3rd hottest 100.0%
1st hottest <1%
2nd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$96,545 Vol.
$96,545 Vol.
May 10, 2026
1st hottest
$13,565 Vol.
No
2nd hottest
$24,931 Vol.
No
3rd hottest
$20,272 Vol.
Yes
4th or lower
$37,777 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information and Copernicus Climate Change Service released preliminary data confirming April 2026 as the third-warmest April globally on record, with surface air temperature anomalies tying prior peaks like 2020 and 2016 at approximately 0.52°C above the 1991–2020 baseline in Copernicus datasets and aligning in NOAA's global land-ocean index. This positioning, driven by persistent anthropogenic warming amid a transitioning ENSO from El Niño, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on "3rd hottest," reflecting trader consensus on verified observational records spanning 145 years. Realistic challenges include rare post-preliminary revisions from data quality checks or Arctic/Antarctic measurement updates, though rankings seldom shift after initial agency briefings expected this week.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$96,545End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information and Copernicus Climate Change Service released preliminary data confirming April 2026 as the third-warmest April globally on record, with surface air temperature anomalies tying prior peaks like 2020 and 2016 at approximately 0.52°C above the 1991–2020 baseline in Copernicus datasets and aligning in NOAA's global land-ocean index. This positioning, driven by persistent anthropogenic warming amid a transitioning ENSO from El Niño, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on "3rd hottest," reflecting trader consensus on verified observational records spanning 145 years. Realistic challenges include rare post-preliminary revisions from data quality checks or Arctic/Antarctic measurement updates, though rankings seldom shift after initial agency briefings expected this week.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$96,545End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information and Copernicus Climate Change Service released preliminary data confirming April 2026 as the third-warmest April globally on record, with surface air temperature anomalies tying prior peaks like 2020 and 2016 at approximately 0.52°C above the 1991–2020 baseline in Copernicus datasets and aligning in NOAA's global land-ocean index. This positioning, driven by persistent anthropogenic warming amid a transitioning ENSO from El Niño, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on "3rd hottest," reflecting trader consensus on verified observational records spanning 145 years. Realistic challenges include rare post-preliminary revisions from data quality checks or Arctic/Antarctic measurement updates, though rankings seldom shift after initial agency briefings expected this week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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