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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

Mar 29

Apr 5

Mar 29

Apr 5

0 47%

4 33%

5 32%

1 31%

Polymarket
NEW

0 47%

4 33%

5 32%

1 31%

Polymarket
NEW

0

$130 Vol.

47%

1

$202 Vol.

31%

2

$17 Vol.

16%

3

$37 Vol.

42%

4

$11 Vol.

33%

5

$11 Vol.

32%

>5

$28 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0" at 47%, followed by "3" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?" is "0" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.