Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMay 19 34%
No release by May 31 31%
May 12 7%
May 13 6%
$35,819 Vol.
$35,819 Vol.
May 31, 2026
On or prior to May 6
<1%
May 7
2%
May 8
8%
May 9
1%
May 10
3%
May 11
3%
May 12
7%
May 13
6%
May 14
5%
May 15
2%
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
4%
May 19
34%
May 20
5%
May 21
3%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
3%
May 26
1%
May 27
7%
May 28
<1%
May 29
1%
May 30
2%
May 31
1%
No release by May 31
31%
May 19 34%
No release by May 31 31%
May 12 7%
May 13 6%
$35,819 Vol.
$35,819 Vol.
May 31, 2026
On or prior to May 6
$1,428 Vol.
<1%
May 7
$788 Vol.
2%
May 8
$499 Vol.
8%
May 9
$2,773 Vol.
1%
May 10
$2,853 Vol.
3%
May 11
$554 Vol.
3%
May 12
$567 Vol.
7%
May 13
$604 Vol.
6%
May 14
$526 Vol.
5%
May 15
$524 Vol.
2%
May 16
$2,806 Vol.
<1%
May 17
$2,818 Vol.
<1%
May 18
$752 Vol.
4%
May 19
$1,292 Vol.
34%
May 20
$857 Vol.
5%
May 21
$791 Vol.
3%
May 22
$771 Vol.
2%
May 23
$2,581 Vol.
<1%
May 24
$2,626 Vol.
1%
May 25
$596 Vol.
3%
May 26
$601 Vol.
1%
May 27
$586 Vol.
7%
May 28
$586 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$611 Vol.
1%
May 30
$2,995 Vol.
2%
May 31
$2,762 Vol.
1%
No release by May 31
$673 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volume
$35,819End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$35,819End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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