Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJuly 9 100.0%
June 24 or earlier <1%
June 25 <1%
June 26 <1%
$1,013,818 Vol.
$1,013,818 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
June 24 or earlier
No
June 25
No
June 26
No
June 27
No
June 28
No
June 29
No
June 30
No
July 1
No
July 2
No
July 3
No
July 4
No
July 5
No
July 6
No
July 7
No
July 8
No
July 9
Yes
July 10
No
July 11
No
July 12
No
July 13
No
July 14
No
July 15
No
July 16
No
July 17
No
July 18
No
July 19
No
July 20
No
July 21
No
July 22
No
July 23
No
July 24
No
July 25
No
July 26
No
July 27
No
July 28
No
July 29
No
July 30
No
July 31
No
Not released before August
No
July 9 100.0%
June 24 or earlier <1%
June 25 <1%
June 26 <1%
$1,013,818 Vol.
$1,013,818 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
June 24 or earlier
$548 Vol.
No
June 25
$10,569 Vol.
No
June 26
$3,066 Vol.
No
June 27
$1,410 Vol.
No
June 28
$4,390 Vol.
No
June 29
$2,960 Vol.
No
June 30
$5,022 Vol.
No
July 1
$8,897 Vol.
No
July 2
$9,747 Vol.
No
July 3
$2,222 Vol.
No
July 4
$5,827 Vol.
No
July 5
$18,102 Vol.
No
July 6
$39,510 Vol.
No
July 7
$305,392 Vol.
No
July 8
$118,843 Vol.
No
July 9
$278,673 Vol.
Yes
July 10
$51,247 Vol.
No
July 11
$10,822 Vol.
No
July 12
$6,213 Vol.
No
July 13
$5,996 Vol.
No
July 14
$23,914 Vol.
No
July 15
$10,060 Vol.
No
July 16
$23,506 Vol.
No
July 17
$7,624 Vol.
No
July 18
$1,991 Vol.
No
July 19
$1,733 Vol.
No
July 20
$2,397 Vol.
No
July 21
$5,011 Vol.
No
July 22
$2,268 Vol.
No
July 23
$4,790 Vol.
No
July 24
$3,521 Vol.
No
July 25
$1,757 Vol.
No
July 26
$741 Vol.
No
July 27
$1,771 Vol.
No
July 28
$4,676 Vol.
No
July 29
$2,266 Vol.
No
July 30
$4,350 Vol.
No
July 31
$2,759 Vol.
No
Not released before August
$19,226 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ET
Volume
$1,013,818End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,013,818End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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