Moonshot AI, the Beijing-based developer behind the Kimi series of large language models, released Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026 as its latest flagship—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE model with a 1-million-token context window, native vision, and strong results on coding and agentic benchmarks that placed it just behind leading closed models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol. The company followed with open weights under a custom license by late July, continuing a rapid cadence that included K2.5 in January, K2.6 in April, and K2.7 Code in June. Trader sentiment for the next Kimi K model release centers on Moonshot’s demonstrated scaling efficiency gains via new architectural features like Kimi Delta Attention, competitive pressure from U.S. labs, and the absence of any confirmed timeline or competing claims for a K4 successor as of early September. Key catalysts ahead include potential announcements at industry events or updates on compute scaling amid ongoing U.S. export restrictions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$15,781 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
September 15, 2026
5%
September 30, 2026
89%
December 31, 2026
99%
$15,781 Vol.
September 15, 2026
$1,891 Vol.
5%
September 30, 2026
$9,775 Vol.
89%
December 31, 2026
$2,188 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI, the Beijing-based developer behind the Kimi series of large language models, released Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026 as its latest flagship—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE model with a 1-million-token context window, native vision, and strong results on coding and agentic benchmarks that placed it just behind leading closed models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol. The company followed with open weights under a custom license by late July, continuing a rapid cadence that included K2.5 in January, K2.6 in April, and K2.7 Code in June. Trader sentiment for the next Kimi K model release centers on Moonshot’s demonstrated scaling efficiency gains via new architectural features like Kimi Delta Attention, competitive pressure from U.S. labs, and the absence of any confirmed timeline or competing claims for a K4 successor as of early September. Key catalysts ahead include potential announcements at industry events or updates on compute scaling amid ongoing U.S. export restrictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Volume
$15,781End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI, the Beijing-based developer behind the Kimi series of large language models, released Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026 as its latest flagship—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE model with a 1-million-token context window, native vision, and strong results on coding and agentic benchmarks that placed it just behind leading closed models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol. The company followed with open weights under a custom license by late July, continuing a rapid cadence that included K2.5 in January, K2.6 in April, and K2.7 Code in June. Trader sentiment for the next Kimi K model release centers on Moonshot’s demonstrated scaling efficiency gains via new architectural features like Kimi Delta Attention, competitive pressure from U.S. labs, and the absence of any confirmed timeline or competing claims for a K4 successor as of early September. Key catalysts ahead include potential announcements at industry events or updates on compute scaling amid ongoing U.S. export restrictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$15,781End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI, the Beijing-based developer behind the Kimi series of large language models, released Kimi K3 in mid-July 2026 as its latest flagship—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE model with a 1-million-token context window, native vision, and strong results on coding and agentic benchmarks that placed it just behind leading closed models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol. The company followed with open weights under a custom license by late July, continuing a rapid cadence that included K2.5 in January, K2.6 in April, and K2.7 Code in June. Trader sentiment for the next Kimi K model release centers on Moonshot’s demonstrated scaling efficiency gains via new architectural features like Kimi Delta Attention, competitive pressure from U.S. labs, and the absence of any confirmed timeline or competing claims for a K4 successor as of early September. Key catalysts ahead include potential announcements at industry events or updates on compute scaling amid ongoing U.S. export restrictions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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