Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate Amsterdam will see mostly cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle on September 11, driven by southerly flow of mild, moist Atlantic air ahead of a weak front. This setup favors afternoon highs near 19–20°C, with limited solar heating from persistent cloud cover and scattered showers. Historical September averages hover around 18–19°C, and current guidance shows no strong ridging that would allow clearer conditions or a push toward 22°C or higher. Traders appear to weigh these near-term model runs heavily, assigning the highest implied probabilities to the 19–21°C band while discounting outliers given the stable pattern and modest uncertainty in exact precipitation timing. Updated runs from official agencies like KNMI or ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours could refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 11?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 11?
20°C 47%
21°C 25%
19°C 23%
18°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
4%
18°C
8%
19°C
24%
20°C
47%
21°C
25%
22°C
5%
23°C
4%
24°C or higher
1%
20°C 47%
21°C 25%
19°C 23%
18°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C
$0 Vol.
4%
18°C
$0 Vol.
8%
19°C
$56 Vol.
24%
20°C
$139 Vol.
47%
21°C
$0 Vol.
25%
22°C
$30 Vol.
5%
23°C
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate Amsterdam will see mostly cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle on September 11, driven by southerly flow of mild, moist Atlantic air ahead of a weak front. This setup favors afternoon highs near 19–20°C, with limited solar heating from persistent cloud cover and scattered showers. Historical September averages hover around 18–19°C, and current guidance shows no strong ridging that would allow clearer conditions or a push toward 22°C or higher. Traders appear to weigh these near-term model runs heavily, assigning the highest implied probabilities to the 19–21°C band while discounting outliers given the stable pattern and modest uncertainty in exact precipitation timing. Updated runs from official agencies like KNMI or ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours could refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$225End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate Amsterdam will see mostly cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle on September 11, driven by southerly flow of mild, moist Atlantic air ahead of a weak front. This setup favors afternoon highs near 19–20°C, with limited solar heating from persistent cloud cover and scattered showers. Historical September averages hover around 18–19°C, and current guidance shows no strong ridging that would allow clearer conditions or a push toward 22°C or higher. Traders appear to weigh these near-term model runs heavily, assigning the highest implied probabilities to the 19–21°C band while discounting outliers given the stable pattern and modest uncertainty in exact precipitation timing. Updated runs from official agencies like KNMI or ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours could refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$225End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate Amsterdam will see mostly cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle on September 11, driven by southerly flow of mild, moist Atlantic air ahead of a weak front. This setup favors afternoon highs near 19–20°C, with limited solar heating from persistent cloud cover and scattered showers. Historical September averages hover around 18–19°C, and current guidance shows no strong ridging that would allow clearer conditions or a push toward 22°C or higher. Traders appear to weigh these near-term model runs heavily, assigning the highest implied probabilities to the 19–21°C band while discounting outliers given the stable pattern and modest uncertainty in exact precipitation timing. Updated runs from official agencies like KNMI or ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours could refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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