Recent forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a mostly cloudy day over Amsterdam on September 10 with light southwesterly winds and minimal precipitation, supporting a maximum temperature near 18–19 °C. This aligns with the historical average high of 19.7 °C for the date while falling short of the warmer conditions observed earlier in the month. Small differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or slight shifts in the 500 hPa flow explain the tight market split between 19 °C and 20 °C implied probabilities. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely determine whether the peak edges toward the higher or lower end of that narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 10?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 10?
19°C 41%
20°C 39%
18°C 13%
22°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
14°C or below
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
5%
18°C
13%
19°C
41%
20°C
39%
21°C
6%
22°C
6%
23°C
4%
24°C or higher
1%
19°C 41%
20°C 39%
18°C 13%
22°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
14°C or below
$100 Vol.
2%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$15 Vol.
3%
17°C
$0 Vol.
5%
18°C
$12 Vol.
13%
19°C
$100 Vol.
41%
20°C
$68 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
6%
22°C
$0 Vol.
6%
23°C
$3 Vol.
4%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a mostly cloudy day over Amsterdam on September 10 with light southwesterly winds and minimal precipitation, supporting a maximum temperature near 18–19 °C. This aligns with the historical average high of 19.7 °C for the date while falling short of the warmer conditions observed earlier in the month. Small differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or slight shifts in the 500 hPa flow explain the tight market split between 19 °C and 20 °C implied probabilities. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely determine whether the peak edges toward the higher or lower end of that narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$298End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a mostly cloudy day over Amsterdam on September 10 with light southwesterly winds and minimal precipitation, supporting a maximum temperature near 18–19 °C. This aligns with the historical average high of 19.7 °C for the date while falling short of the warmer conditions observed earlier in the month. Small differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or slight shifts in the 500 hPa flow explain the tight market split between 19 °C and 20 °C implied probabilities. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely determine whether the peak edges toward the higher or lower end of that narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$298End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a mostly cloudy day over Amsterdam on September 10 with light southwesterly winds and minimal precipitation, supporting a maximum temperature near 18–19 °C. This aligns with the historical average high of 19.7 °C for the date while falling short of the warmer conditions observed earlier in the month. Small differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or slight shifts in the 500 hPa flow explain the tight market split between 19 °C and 20 °C implied probabilities. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely determine whether the peak edges toward the higher or lower end of that narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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