Recent cooler-than-average conditions across early September 2026, with monthly means running about 2°C below the long-term norm, have elevated the chance of a notably low minimum on the 10th. Official forecasts from sources such as the Met Office, Yr, and global models currently point to overnight lows near 10–13 °C under light southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, yet model spreads and the season’s established cool anomaly keep substantial probability mass on readings of 6 °C or below. Historical data show such cold nights are uncommon but possible when clear, calm conditions allow strong radiational cooling, and traders appear to be weighting that tail risk alongside the more likely 9–12 °C range. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of the 9th will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 10?
6°C or below 79%
11°C 32%
10°C 23%
9°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
6°C or below
79%
7°C
9%
8°C
10%
9°C
22%
10°C
23%
11°C
32%
12°C
19%
13°C
18%
14°C
14%
15°C
13%
16°C or higher
11%
6°C or below 79%
11°C 32%
10°C 23%
9°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
6°C or below
$25 Vol.
79%
7°C
$10 Vol.
9%
8°C
$67 Vol.
10%
9°C
$0 Vol.
22%
10°C
$0 Vol.
23%
11°C
$0 Vol.
32%
12°C
$0 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
18%
14°C
$15 Vol.
14%
15°C
$10 Vol.
13%
16°C or higher
$51 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooler-than-average conditions across early September 2026, with monthly means running about 2°C below the long-term norm, have elevated the chance of a notably low minimum on the 10th. Official forecasts from sources such as the Met Office, Yr, and global models currently point to overnight lows near 10–13 °C under light southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, yet model spreads and the season’s established cool anomaly keep substantial probability mass on readings of 6 °C or below. Historical data show such cold nights are uncommon but possible when clear, calm conditions allow strong radiational cooling, and traders appear to be weighting that tail risk alongside the more likely 9–12 °C range. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of the 9th will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$178End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooler-than-average conditions across early September 2026, with monthly means running about 2°C below the long-term norm, have elevated the chance of a notably low minimum on the 10th. Official forecasts from sources such as the Met Office, Yr, and global models currently point to overnight lows near 10–13 °C under light southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, yet model spreads and the season’s established cool anomaly keep substantial probability mass on readings of 6 °C or below. Historical data show such cold nights are uncommon but possible when clear, calm conditions allow strong radiational cooling, and traders appear to be weighting that tail risk alongside the more likely 9–12 °C range. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of the 9th will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$178End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cooler-than-average conditions across early September 2026, with monthly means running about 2°C below the long-term norm, have elevated the chance of a notably low minimum on the 10th. Official forecasts from sources such as the Met Office, Yr, and global models currently point to overnight lows near 10–13 °C under light southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, yet model spreads and the season’s established cool anomaly keep substantial probability mass on readings of 6 °C or below. Historical data show such cold nights are uncommon but possible when clear, calm conditions allow strong radiational cooling, and traders appear to be weighting that tail risk alongside the more likely 9–12 °C range. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of the 9th will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions