Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs for Ankara center daily maximum temperatures near 31–33°C on July 13, with tight spread reflecting stable high-pressure influence over the Anatolian plateau and minimal cloud cover or precipitation expected. This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C, as traders weigh model agreement against typical July climatology of 29–32°C highs and local factors such as diurnal heating rates and boundary-layer mixing. Minor divergences in wind direction or timing of any subtle trough could shift the peak by 1–2°C, while official Turkish Meteorological Service observations will resolve the exact value. Updated model cycles over the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalyst for any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on July 13?
Highest temperature in Ankara on July 13?
32°C 45%
33°C 40%
31°C 11%
30°C 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Jul 13, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
11%
32°C
45%
33°C
40%
34°C
4%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 45%
33°C 40%
31°C 11%
30°C 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Jul 13, 2026
28°C or below
$829 Vol.
1%
29°C
$124 Vol.
1%
30°C
$88 Vol.
4%
31°C
$83 Vol.
11%
32°C
$118 Vol.
45%
33°C
$174 Vol.
40%
34°C
$70 Vol.
4%
35°C
$66 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$91 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$431 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$371 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs for Ankara center daily maximum temperatures near 31–33°C on July 13, with tight spread reflecting stable high-pressure influence over the Anatolian plateau and minimal cloud cover or precipitation expected. This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C, as traders weigh model agreement against typical July climatology of 29–32°C highs and local factors such as diurnal heating rates and boundary-layer mixing. Minor divergences in wind direction or timing of any subtle trough could shift the peak by 1–2°C, while official Turkish Meteorological Service observations will resolve the exact value. Updated model cycles over the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalyst for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$2,440End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs for Ankara center daily maximum temperatures near 31–33°C on July 13, with tight spread reflecting stable high-pressure influence over the Anatolian plateau and minimal cloud cover or precipitation expected. This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C, as traders weigh model agreement against typical July climatology of 29–32°C highs and local factors such as diurnal heating rates and boundary-layer mixing. Minor divergences in wind direction or timing of any subtle trough could shift the peak by 1–2°C, while official Turkish Meteorological Service observations will resolve the exact value. Updated model cycles over the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalyst for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,440End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs for Ankara center daily maximum temperatures near 31–33°C on July 13, with tight spread reflecting stable high-pressure influence over the Anatolian plateau and minimal cloud cover or precipitation expected. This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C, as traders weigh model agreement against typical July climatology of 29–32°C highs and local factors such as diurnal heating rates and boundary-layer mixing. Minor divergences in wind direction or timing of any subtle trough could shift the peak by 1–2°C, while official Turkish Meteorological Service observations will resolve the exact value. Updated model cycles over the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalyst for any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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