Trader consensus around 32–34°C for Chengdu’s July 11 high reflects tight ensemble spreads in global and regional models amid the city’s subtropical monsoon regime, where afternoon convection and variable cloud cover can suppress peaks by 2–4°C. Recent thundershower activity through July 9–10 has introduced moisture that may moderate insolation on the 11th, while Sichuan basin humidity and urban heat retention support readings near the seasonal 31–33°C July average. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and international runs show limited model agreement on exact timing of any clearing, keeping implied probabilities closely bunched and underscoring forecast sensitivity to small shifts in steering flow or precipitation onset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?
31°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$130,863 Vol.
$130,863 Vol.
Jul 11, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$130,863 Vol.
$130,863 Vol.
Jul 11, 2026
28°C or below
$6,492 Vol.
No
29°C
$23,517 Vol.
No
30°C
$13,237 Vol.
No
31°C
$22,471 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$14,135 Vol.
No
33°C
$9,630 Vol.
No
34°C
$8,608 Vol.
No
35°C
$12,682 Vol.
No
36°C
$7,643 Vol.
No
37°C
$4,116 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$8,332 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 32–34°C for Chengdu’s July 11 high reflects tight ensemble spreads in global and regional models amid the city’s subtropical monsoon regime, where afternoon convection and variable cloud cover can suppress peaks by 2–4°C. Recent thundershower activity through July 9–10 has introduced moisture that may moderate insolation on the 11th, while Sichuan basin humidity and urban heat retention support readings near the seasonal 31–33°C July average. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and international runs show limited model agreement on exact timing of any clearing, keeping implied probabilities closely bunched and underscoring forecast sensitivity to small shifts in steering flow or precipitation onset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$130,863End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 32–34°C for Chengdu’s July 11 high reflects tight ensemble spreads in global and regional models amid the city’s subtropical monsoon regime, where afternoon convection and variable cloud cover can suppress peaks by 2–4°C. Recent thundershower activity through July 9–10 has introduced moisture that may moderate insolation on the 11th, while Sichuan basin humidity and urban heat retention support readings near the seasonal 31–33°C July average. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and international runs show limited model agreement on exact timing of any clearing, keeping implied probabilities closely bunched and underscoring forecast sensitivity to small shifts in steering flow or precipitation onset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$130,863End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus around 32–34°C for Chengdu’s July 11 high reflects tight ensemble spreads in global and regional models amid the city’s subtropical monsoon regime, where afternoon convection and variable cloud cover can suppress peaks by 2–4°C. Recent thundershower activity through July 9–10 has introduced moisture that may moderate insolation on the 11th, while Sichuan basin humidity and urban heat retention support readings near the seasonal 31–33°C July average. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and international runs show limited model agreement on exact timing of any clearing, keeping implied probabilities closely bunched and underscoring forecast sensitivity to small shifts in steering flow or precipitation onset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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