Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 30°C high in Ankara on June 17 because official meteorological observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international monitoring networks recorded a daily maximum of 30–31°C under clear, sunny conditions with light northeasterly winds. This aligns with model consensus from short-range forecasts showing peak afternoon temperatures near 30°C amid typical early-summer subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Historical June climatology for the region places average highs around 25–28°C, making the observed value a modest positive anomaly driven by stable high-pressure dominance. The only realistic challenges to this outcome would involve post hoc revisions to station data, instrument calibration errors at the primary Ankara reporting site, or an unusually sharp late-day temperature spike exceeding the recorded peak—none of which have materialized in preliminary reports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on June 17?
Highest temperature in Ankara on June 17?
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$57,620 Vol.
$57,620 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$57,620 Vol.
$57,620 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
25°C or below
$854 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,319 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,706 Vol.
No
28°C
$8,065 Vol.
No
29°C
$9,890 Vol.
No
30°C
$13,342 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$8,225 Vol.
No
32°C
$6,313 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,191 Vol.
No
34°C
$480 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$234 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 30°C high in Ankara on June 17 because official meteorological observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international monitoring networks recorded a daily maximum of 30–31°C under clear, sunny conditions with light northeasterly winds. This aligns with model consensus from short-range forecasts showing peak afternoon temperatures near 30°C amid typical early-summer subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Historical June climatology for the region places average highs around 25–28°C, making the observed value a modest positive anomaly driven by stable high-pressure dominance. The only realistic challenges to this outcome would involve post hoc revisions to station data, instrument calibration errors at the primary Ankara reporting site, or an unusually sharp late-day temperature spike exceeding the recorded peak—none of which have materialized in preliminary reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 15, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$57,620End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jun 15, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 30°C high in Ankara on June 17 because official meteorological observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international monitoring networks recorded a daily maximum of 30–31°C under clear, sunny conditions with light northeasterly winds. This aligns with model consensus from short-range forecasts showing peak afternoon temperatures near 30°C amid typical early-summer subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Historical June climatology for the region places average highs around 25–28°C, making the observed value a modest positive anomaly driven by stable high-pressure dominance. The only realistic challenges to this outcome would involve post hoc revisions to station data, instrument calibration errors at the primary Ankara reporting site, or an unusually sharp late-day temperature spike exceeding the recorded peak—none of which have materialized in preliminary reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$57,620End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jun 15, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 30°C high in Ankara on June 17 because official meteorological observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international monitoring networks recorded a daily maximum of 30–31°C under clear, sunny conditions with light northeasterly winds. This aligns with model consensus from short-range forecasts showing peak afternoon temperatures near 30°C amid typical early-summer subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Historical June climatology for the region places average highs around 25–28°C, making the observed value a modest positive anomaly driven by stable high-pressure dominance. The only realistic challenges to this outcome would involve post hoc revisions to station data, instrument calibration errors at the primary Ankara reporting site, or an unusually sharp late-day temperature spike exceeding the recorded peak—none of which have materialized in preliminary reports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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