Recent short-term forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ensemble models indicate a July 4 high near 18–19°C in Helsinki, driven by Baltic Sea maritime moderation and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies with possible light showers. These conditions align with the market-implied probabilities favoring 19°C (39%) and 18°C (25%), reflecting typical early-July variability where average highs reach about 21°C but cooler northerly flows can suppress peaks by 2–3°C. Longer-range guidance shows modest uncertainty in exact maximums due to evolving cloud cover and wind patterns, while historical July data place 20°C+ outcomes as less probable without stronger anticyclonic influence. Traders appear to weigh these near-term model runs heavily ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Helsinki on July 4?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on July 4?
20°C 47%
19°C 34%
21°C 15.4%
18°C 6.4%
NEW
$27,989 Vol.
NEW
$27,989 Vol.
Jul 4, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
6%
19°C
34%
20°C
47%
21°C
15%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
20°C 47%
19°C 34%
21°C 15.4%
18°C 6.4%
NEW
$27,989 Vol.
NEW
$27,989 Vol.
Jul 4, 2026
14°C or below
$1,522 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$3,696 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$487 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,044 Vol.
1%
18°C
$2,053 Vol.
6%
19°C
$11,045 Vol.
34%
20°C
$3,186 Vol.
47%
21°C
$2,115 Vol.
15%
22°C
$979 Vol.
1%
23°C
$706 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$1,178 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ensemble models indicate a July 4 high near 18–19°C in Helsinki, driven by Baltic Sea maritime moderation and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies with possible light showers. These conditions align with the market-implied probabilities favoring 19°C (39%) and 18°C (25%), reflecting typical early-July variability where average highs reach about 21°C but cooler northerly flows can suppress peaks by 2–3°C. Longer-range guidance shows modest uncertainty in exact maximums due to evolving cloud cover and wind patterns, while historical July data place 20°C+ outcomes as less probable without stronger anticyclonic influence. Traders appear to weigh these near-term model runs heavily ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$27,989End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ensemble models indicate a July 4 high near 18–19°C in Helsinki, driven by Baltic Sea maritime moderation and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies with possible light showers. These conditions align with the market-implied probabilities favoring 19°C (39%) and 18°C (25%), reflecting typical early-July variability where average highs reach about 21°C but cooler northerly flows can suppress peaks by 2–3°C. Longer-range guidance shows modest uncertainty in exact maximums due to evolving cloud cover and wind patterns, while historical July data place 20°C+ outcomes as less probable without stronger anticyclonic influence. Traders appear to weigh these near-term model runs heavily ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,989End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-term forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ensemble models indicate a July 4 high near 18–19°C in Helsinki, driven by Baltic Sea maritime moderation and limited daytime heating under partly cloudy skies with possible light showers. These conditions align with the market-implied probabilities favoring 19°C (39%) and 18°C (25%), reflecting typical early-July variability where average highs reach about 21°C but cooler northerly flows can suppress peaks by 2–3°C. Longer-range guidance shows modest uncertainty in exact maximums due to evolving cloud cover and wind patterns, while historical July data place 20°C+ outcomes as less probable without stronger anticyclonic influence. Traders appear to weigh these near-term model runs heavily ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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