Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office point to a July 4 maximum near 31°C in Guangzhou, aligning with the market’s clustered probabilities around 30–32°C. In this subtropical monsoon regime, peak temperatures hinge on insolation, boundary-layer moisture, and convective cloud cover that can cap daytime highs through evaporative cooling and reduced solar input. Early July climatology features average highs of 32–33°C amid 80%+ relative humidity, yet scattered thunderstorms—common in the region—introduce variability that differentiates 29°C from 33°C+ outcomes. With resolution hinging on official station readings, traders weigh short-term model consensus against typical afternoon shower timing and any lingering frontal influences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4?
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$138,978 Vol.
$138,978 Vol.
Jul 4, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$138,978 Vol.
$138,978 Vol.
Jul 4, 2026
23°C or below
$3,398 Vol.
No
24°C
$21,882 Vol.
No
25°C
$13,446 Vol.
No
26°C
$5,028 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,969 Vol.
No
28°C
$12,889 Vol.
No
29°C
$15,597 Vol.
No
30°C
$22,337 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$10,085 Vol.
No
32°C
$10,691 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$15,656 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office point to a July 4 maximum near 31°C in Guangzhou, aligning with the market’s clustered probabilities around 30–32°C. In this subtropical monsoon regime, peak temperatures hinge on insolation, boundary-layer moisture, and convective cloud cover that can cap daytime highs through evaporative cooling and reduced solar input. Early July climatology features average highs of 32–33°C amid 80%+ relative humidity, yet scattered thunderstorms—common in the region—introduce variability that differentiates 29°C from 33°C+ outcomes. With resolution hinging on official station readings, traders weigh short-term model consensus against typical afternoon shower timing and any lingering frontal influences.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$138,978End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office point to a July 4 maximum near 31°C in Guangzhou, aligning with the market’s clustered probabilities around 30–32°C. In this subtropical monsoon regime, peak temperatures hinge on insolation, boundary-layer moisture, and convective cloud cover that can cap daytime highs through evaporative cooling and reduced solar input. Early July climatology features average highs of 32–33°C amid 80%+ relative humidity, yet scattered thunderstorms—common in the region—introduce variability that differentiates 29°C from 33°C+ outcomes. With resolution hinging on official station readings, traders weigh short-term model consensus against typical afternoon shower timing and any lingering frontal influences.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$138,978End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office point to a July 4 maximum near 31°C in Guangzhou, aligning with the market’s clustered probabilities around 30–32°C. In this subtropical monsoon regime, peak temperatures hinge on insolation, boundary-layer moisture, and convective cloud cover that can cap daytime highs through evaporative cooling and reduced solar input. Early July climatology features average highs of 32–33°C amid 80%+ relative humidity, yet scattered thunderstorms—common in the region—introduce variability that differentiates 29°C from 33°C+ outcomes. With resolution hinging on official station readings, traders weigh short-term model consensus against typical afternoon shower timing and any lingering frontal influences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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