Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs place Houston’s July 5 high in the mid-90s under a strengthening subtropical ridge that favors subsidence and limited cloud cover. Differentiation between the closely matched 92–93 °F, 94–95 °F, and 96–97 °F brackets hinges on small forecast differences in boundary-layer moisture, the inland penetration of the afternoon sea breeze, and the timing or coverage of any isolated thunderstorms that could briefly reduce insolation. With climatological normals near 94–95 °F and above-average 500-hPa heights already observed, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution guidance most heavily as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on July 5?
Highest temperature in Houston on July 5?
98-99°F 100.0%
83°F or below <1%
84-85°F <1%
86-87°F <1%
$53,744 Vol.
$53,744 Vol.
Jul 5, 2026
83°F or below
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94-95°F
No
96-97°F
No
98-99°F
Yes
100-101°F
No
102°F or higher
No
98-99°F 100.0%
83°F or below <1%
84-85°F <1%
86-87°F <1%
$53,744 Vol.
$53,744 Vol.
Jul 5, 2026
83°F or below
$1,857 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$2,762 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$2,396 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$2,620 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$4,356 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$7,646 Vol.
No
94-95°F
$8,233 Vol.
No
96-97°F
$10,627 Vol.
No
98-99°F
$6,491 Vol.
Yes
100-101°F
$4,201 Vol.
No
102°F or higher
$2,556 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs place Houston’s July 5 high in the mid-90s under a strengthening subtropical ridge that favors subsidence and limited cloud cover. Differentiation between the closely matched 92–93 °F, 94–95 °F, and 96–97 °F brackets hinges on small forecast differences in boundary-layer moisture, the inland penetration of the afternoon sea breeze, and the timing or coverage of any isolated thunderstorms that could briefly reduce insolation. With climatological normals near 94–95 °F and above-average 500-hPa heights already observed, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution guidance most heavily as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$53,744End Date
Jul 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs place Houston’s July 5 high in the mid-90s under a strengthening subtropical ridge that favors subsidence and limited cloud cover. Differentiation between the closely matched 92–93 °F, 94–95 °F, and 96–97 °F brackets hinges on small forecast differences in boundary-layer moisture, the inland penetration of the afternoon sea breeze, and the timing or coverage of any isolated thunderstorms that could briefly reduce insolation. With climatological normals near 94–95 °F and above-average 500-hPa heights already observed, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution guidance most heavily as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$53,744End Date
Jul 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs place Houston’s July 5 high in the mid-90s under a strengthening subtropical ridge that favors subsidence and limited cloud cover. Differentiation between the closely matched 92–93 °F, 94–95 °F, and 96–97 °F brackets hinges on small forecast differences in boundary-layer moisture, the inland penetration of the afternoon sea breeze, and the timing or coverage of any isolated thunderstorms that could briefly reduce insolation. With climatological normals near 94–95 °F and above-average 500-hPa heights already observed, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution guidance most heavily as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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