Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 29°C high temperature in Guangzhou today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble model consensus projecting peaks of 28–29°C at Baiyun International Airport amid persistent cloud cover, 80% humidity, and scattered showers that limit surface heating and convective potential. Midday observations confirm 27–28°C readings, aligning with early May climatological averages of 29.3°C during subtropical monsoon onset, when overcast conditions typically cap daytime highs. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing enabling brief solar insolation spikes or urban heat island amplification pushing briefly to 30°C, though robust model agreement and stable atmospheric patterns render this unlikely; track hourly airport METAR data for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on May 2?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 2?
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$43,698 Vol.
$43,698 Vol.
May 2, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$43,698 Vol.
$43,698 Vol.
May 2, 2026
23°C or below
$1,653 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,159 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,877 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,433 Vol.
No
27°C
$5,343 Vol.
No
28°C
$5,913 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,466 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$4,108 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,731 Vol.
No
32°C
$4,787 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$5,229 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 29°C high temperature in Guangzhou today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble model consensus projecting peaks of 28–29°C at Baiyun International Airport amid persistent cloud cover, 80% humidity, and scattered showers that limit surface heating and convective potential. Midday observations confirm 27–28°C readings, aligning with early May climatological averages of 29.3°C during subtropical monsoon onset, when overcast conditions typically cap daytime highs. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing enabling brief solar insolation spikes or urban heat island amplification pushing briefly to 30°C, though robust model agreement and stable atmospheric patterns render this unlikely; track hourly airport METAR data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
Volume
$43,698End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 29°C high temperature in Guangzhou today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble model consensus projecting peaks of 28–29°C at Baiyun International Airport amid persistent cloud cover, 80% humidity, and scattered showers that limit surface heating and convective potential. Midday observations confirm 27–28°C readings, aligning with early May climatological averages of 29.3°C during subtropical monsoon onset, when overcast conditions typically cap daytime highs. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing enabling brief solar insolation spikes or urban heat island amplification pushing briefly to 30°C, though robust model agreement and stable atmospheric patterns render this unlikely; track hourly airport METAR data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$43,698End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 29°C high temperature in Guangzhou today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble model consensus projecting peaks of 28–29°C at Baiyun International Airport amid persistent cloud cover, 80% humidity, and scattered showers that limit surface heating and convective potential. Midday observations confirm 27–28°C readings, aligning with early May climatological averages of 29.3°C during subtropical monsoon onset, when overcast conditions typically cap daytime highs. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing enabling brief solar insolation spikes or urban heat island amplification pushing briefly to 30°C, though robust model agreement and stable atmospheric patterns render this unlikely; track hourly airport METAR data for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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