Traders see 16–19°C as the most probable range for Helsinki’s July 9 maximum because recent ECMWF and GFS model runs cluster daytime highs near 18–19°C, consistent with Met Office guidance of 19°C and Finnish Meteorological Institute observations showing mid-July temperatures in the mid-teens to low-20s. Moderate north-easterly flow off the cooler Baltic Sea, combined with variable cloud cover and scattered showers, limits strong daytime heating and keeps values below the seasonal average of ~21°C. Forecast spread of roughly ±1–2°C across ensemble members explains the tight clustering of implied probabilities around these four outcomes, while lower odds on 20°C+ reflect limited potential for clearing and stronger insolation. Updated model cycles through July 8 will remain the key catalyst before resolution on official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Helsinki on July 9?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on July 9?
18°C 34%
19°C 31%
17°C 18%
20°C 14.1%
NEW
$13,203 Vol.
NEW
$13,203 Vol.
Jul 9, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
4%
17°C
18%
18°C
34%
19°C
31%
20°C
14%
21°C or higher
5%
18°C 34%
19°C 31%
17°C 18%
20°C 14.1%
NEW
$13,203 Vol.
NEW
$13,203 Vol.
Jul 9, 2026
11°C or below
$1,997 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$204 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$807 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$397 Vol.
1%
15°C
$296 Vol.
1%
16°C
$1,407 Vol.
4%
17°C
$1,675 Vol.
18%
18°C
$1,802 Vol.
34%
19°C
$824 Vol.
31%
20°C
$2,672 Vol.
14%
21°C or higher
$1,124 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 16–19°C as the most probable range for Helsinki’s July 9 maximum because recent ECMWF and GFS model runs cluster daytime highs near 18–19°C, consistent with Met Office guidance of 19°C and Finnish Meteorological Institute observations showing mid-July temperatures in the mid-teens to low-20s. Moderate north-easterly flow off the cooler Baltic Sea, combined with variable cloud cover and scattered showers, limits strong daytime heating and keeps values below the seasonal average of ~21°C. Forecast spread of roughly ±1–2°C across ensemble members explains the tight clustering of implied probabilities around these four outcomes, while lower odds on 20°C+ reflect limited potential for clearing and stronger insolation. Updated model cycles through July 8 will remain the key catalyst before resolution on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$13,203End Date
Jul 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 16–19°C as the most probable range for Helsinki’s July 9 maximum because recent ECMWF and GFS model runs cluster daytime highs near 18–19°C, consistent with Met Office guidance of 19°C and Finnish Meteorological Institute observations showing mid-July temperatures in the mid-teens to low-20s. Moderate north-easterly flow off the cooler Baltic Sea, combined with variable cloud cover and scattered showers, limits strong daytime heating and keeps values below the seasonal average of ~21°C. Forecast spread of roughly ±1–2°C across ensemble members explains the tight clustering of implied probabilities around these four outcomes, while lower odds on 20°C+ reflect limited potential for clearing and stronger insolation. Updated model cycles through July 8 will remain the key catalyst before resolution on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,203End Date
Jul 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 16–19°C as the most probable range for Helsinki’s July 9 maximum because recent ECMWF and GFS model runs cluster daytime highs near 18–19°C, consistent with Met Office guidance of 19°C and Finnish Meteorological Institute observations showing mid-July temperatures in the mid-teens to low-20s. Moderate north-easterly flow off the cooler Baltic Sea, combined with variable cloud cover and scattered showers, limits strong daytime heating and keeps values below the seasonal average of ~21°C. Forecast spread of roughly ±1–2°C across ensemble members explains the tight clustering of implied probabilities around these four outcomes, while lower odds on 20°C+ reflect limited potential for clearing and stronger insolation. Updated model cycles through July 8 will remain the key catalyst before resolution on official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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