Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 4, backed by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts showing a daily maximum of 25°C amid persistent overcast skies and patchy rain that limit solar heating. Observations from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—align with this, as midday peaks hovered around this mark with no signs of intensification. Cooler-than-average May conditions (historical highs near 29–30°C) stem from stable low-pressure patterns suppressing typical convective activity. A late-afternoon clearing could theoretically push temperatures higher, but diminishing daylight and cloud cover make this improbable, with final hourly data expected soon after sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on May 4?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 4?
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$45,337 Vol.
$45,337 Vol.
May 4, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$45,337 Vol.
$45,337 Vol.
May 4, 2026
20°C or below
$3,118 Vol.
No
21°C
$4,239 Vol.
No
22°C
$3,477 Vol.
No
23°C
$4,780 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,624 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,241 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$5,873 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,594 Vol.
No
28°C
$4,680 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,560 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$2,152 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 4, backed by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts showing a daily maximum of 25°C amid persistent overcast skies and patchy rain that limit solar heating. Observations from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—align with this, as midday peaks hovered around this mark with no signs of intensification. Cooler-than-average May conditions (historical highs near 29–30°C) stem from stable low-pressure patterns suppressing typical convective activity. A late-afternoon clearing could theoretically push temperatures higher, but diminishing daylight and cloud cover make this improbable, with final hourly data expected soon after sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$45,337End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 4, backed by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts showing a daily maximum of 25°C amid persistent overcast skies and patchy rain that limit solar heating. Observations from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—align with this, as midday peaks hovered around this mark with no signs of intensification. Cooler-than-average May conditions (historical highs near 29–30°C) stem from stable low-pressure patterns suppressing typical convective activity. A late-afternoon clearing could theoretically push temperatures higher, but diminishing daylight and cloud cover make this improbable, with final hourly data expected soon after sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$45,337End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on May 4, backed by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts showing a daily maximum of 25°C amid persistent overcast skies and patchy rain that limit solar heating. Observations from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—align with this, as midday peaks hovered around this mark with no signs of intensification. Cooler-than-average May conditions (historical highs near 29–30°C) stem from stable low-pressure patterns suppressing typical convective activity. A late-afternoon clearing could theoretically push temperatures higher, but diminishing daylight and cloud cover make this improbable, with final hourly data expected soon after sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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