Official NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 3 reached 12°C (53°F), with hourly readings peaking there amid persistent low cloud cover and gusty northerly winds (20–30 km/h) that limited solar heating during a regional cold snap. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) reports align, noting morning lows near 9°C and high precipitation probabilities (50–60%), well below the early May climatological average of 20°C driven by typical Black Sea influences. This observational consensus, overriding prior model uncertainties in GFS and ECMWF ensembles, solidifies trader positioning at 100% implied probability. Final data revisions are rare but could theoretically adjust if instrument anomalies emerge; otherwise, resolution is assured.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 3?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 3?
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$44,461 Vol.
$44,461 Vol.
May 3, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$44,461 Vol.
$44,461 Vol.
May 3, 2026
7°C or below
$3,130 Vol.
No
8°C
$2,466 Vol.
No
9°C
$5,544 Vol.
No
10°C
$2,711 Vol.
No
11°C
$2,436 Vol.
No
12°C
$8,806 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$6,099 Vol.
No
14°C
$4,722 Vol.
No
15°C
$3,297 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,070 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$3,182 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 3 reached 12°C (53°F), with hourly readings peaking there amid persistent low cloud cover and gusty northerly winds (20–30 km/h) that limited solar heating during a regional cold snap. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) reports align, noting morning lows near 9°C and high precipitation probabilities (50–60%), well below the early May climatological average of 20°C driven by typical Black Sea influences. This observational consensus, overriding prior model uncertainties in GFS and ECMWF ensembles, solidifies trader positioning at 100% implied probability. Final data revisions are rare but could theoretically adjust if instrument anomalies emerge; otherwise, resolution is assured.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$44,461End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 3 reached 12°C (53°F), with hourly readings peaking there amid persistent low cloud cover and gusty northerly winds (20–30 km/h) that limited solar heating during a regional cold snap. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) reports align, noting morning lows near 9°C and high precipitation probabilities (50–60%), well below the early May climatological average of 20°C driven by typical Black Sea influences. This observational consensus, overriding prior model uncertainties in GFS and ECMWF ensembles, solidifies trader positioning at 100% implied probability. Final data revisions are rare but could theoretically adjust if instrument anomalies emerge; otherwise, resolution is assured.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$44,461End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 3 reached 12°C (53°F), with hourly readings peaking there amid persistent low cloud cover and gusty northerly winds (20–30 km/h) that limited solar heating during a regional cold snap. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) reports align, noting morning lows near 9°C and high precipitation probabilities (50–60%), well below the early May climatological average of 20°C driven by typical Black Sea influences. This observational consensus, overriding prior model uncertainties in GFS and ECMWF ensembles, solidifies trader positioning at 100% implied probability. Final data revisions are rare but could theoretically adjust if instrument anomalies emerge; otherwise, resolution is assured.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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