Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Karachi's highest temperature reaching 37°C or higher on May 3, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)'s heatwave alert forecasting daytime maximums of 40–42°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies. Current observations already exceed 37°C midday, with southwesterly winds at 20–30 km/h adding humidity for feels-like temperatures over 43°C, aligning with model consensus from AccuWeather and Weather.com showing peaks near 40°C. This exceeds May climatological averages of 35°C amid the intensifying pre-monsoon heat spell. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge or isolated dust-induced cloud cover cooling highs below 37°C, though PMD's evening update could refine this near-certainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Karachi on May 3?
Highest temperature in Karachi on May 3?
37°C or higher 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$17,579 Vol.
$17,579 Vol.
May 3, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
Yes
37°C or higher 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$17,579 Vol.
$17,579 Vol.
May 3, 2026
27°C or below
$1,546 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,248 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,233 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,165 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,076 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,081 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,169 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,141 Vol.
No
35°C
$1,973 Vol.
No
36°C
$2,689 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$2,258 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Karachi's highest temperature reaching 37°C or higher on May 3, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)'s heatwave alert forecasting daytime maximums of 40–42°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies. Current observations already exceed 37°C midday, with southwesterly winds at 20–30 km/h adding humidity for feels-like temperatures over 43°C, aligning with model consensus from AccuWeather and Weather.com showing peaks near 40°C. This exceeds May climatological averages of 35°C amid the intensifying pre-monsoon heat spell. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge or isolated dust-induced cloud cover cooling highs below 37°C, though PMD's evening update could refine this near-certainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$17,579End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Karachi's highest temperature reaching 37°C or higher on May 3, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)'s heatwave alert forecasting daytime maximums of 40–42°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies. Current observations already exceed 37°C midday, with southwesterly winds at 20–30 km/h adding humidity for feels-like temperatures over 43°C, aligning with model consensus from AccuWeather and Weather.com showing peaks near 40°C. This exceeds May climatological averages of 35°C amid the intensifying pre-monsoon heat spell. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge or isolated dust-induced cloud cover cooling highs below 37°C, though PMD's evening update could refine this near-certainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,579End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Karachi's highest temperature reaching 37°C or higher on May 3, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)'s heatwave alert forecasting daytime maximums of 40–42°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies. Current observations already exceed 37°C midday, with southwesterly winds at 20–30 km/h adding humidity for feels-like temperatures over 43°C, aligning with model consensus from AccuWeather and Weather.com showing peaks near 40°C. This exceeds May climatological averages of 35°C amid the intensifying pre-monsoon heat spell. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge or isolated dust-induced cloud cover cooling highs below 37°C, though PMD's evening update could refine this near-certainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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